Quote:
Originally Posted by ninefingershuffle
He thought she might raise Ak enough to call on the flop and c/f the turn
These are the types of very specific assumptions that I think you should be aware of and wary of when it comes to hand analysis.
One reason is that your friend may be right, but we literally have no way of reaching the same conclusion against a generic opponent (even if we label that person as "tight").
Another reason is that it leads to extremely exploitative plays that work when they work, but don't work otherwise. I know that's tautological, but it's basically saying that you have to be right on your assumptions, otherwise you end up losing quite big.
It would be helpful for you and your friend to work together on developing a decision-tree for your opponent. (Keep the pot size the same as in the hand. In other words, assume that your opponents are all dead money. It's not an accurate assumption, but it's good enough.)
On the flop, pick some hand ranges that
* Bet-calls when checked to
* Bet-3! when checked to
* Calls when bet into
* Raises when bet into
(I'm assuming you never bet/3-bet villain here.)
Calculate your equity based on these assumptions. Now move some hands around and look at the equity again. What are the key assumptions in this hand that push things towards leading or towards check-calling or check-raising?
After working through that, if you're ambitious you can try adding in the turn action. The ace falling is the absolute worst for you regardless of how you played the flop (unless KQ is there *AND* she bets it, there's just no way for you to win given a narrow 3-betting range). So pick a different card. Suppose that a T falls. What do you do now? (Notice that what you do probably depends on what you did on the flop.)
I wouldn't say that leading is necessarily bad, but I think that Ax bets often enough to make check-raising (assuming 3-bettor continues the lead) is probably better than betting (especially bet-calling). I think things have to be pretty much perfectly aligned for bet-call, check-fold to be right.