Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
What do you think his raising range is? J-high doesn't exactly hit his range. We should be thrilled that he's 100% c-betting because that maximizes the chances we're ahead of him.
If he has A-high, there's a LOT of value in getting the players behind us to fold. You're not heads up. You want it to be heads up.
The parlay of villain calling with a weak draw and being ahead of SB is one that I'm willing to take. That's now counting as value.
I think so.
Given the pot size, I think getting them to face two significantly increases the chances they're folding.
I disagree. I don't think you've raised a strong enough objection. We don't have an okay hand. We have a weak hand. I'm not planning to just call down with bottom pair in a 4 way pot.
I mean if we want to use OP's range for villain, then sure we have a slam dunk raise and it's straight up value. But if we want to use a sane range, we're basically flipping against a 100% cbet. And OP has given us 0 indication that he's c-betting 100%, just that he's "tilty". Tilty can mean a lot of things, including "F*** I HAVE AK AND MISSED AGAIN".
But sure, let's do math (and I'm calculating these on my own end, you can make your own assumptions as well. I'd rather not bicker about tiny points). Let's assume we're flipping against SB when we raise and he calls and we're HU.
So our pot equity is 12 small bets * 0.5 = 6, and we invested 2, so our EV of the play is 4 small bets.
Now let's say we're 25% 4 ways if we call. Our EV is a quarter of that (3) and we invested 1, so the EV of the play is 2 small bets.
So raising is clearly better, right? Well, no, because we're getting continues behind a ton, and when it happens, we'd probably have something like 28% equity. So 14 bets * .28 - 2 = 1.92 bets. So still not too terrible.
But what if we raise and the limpers both call? Well we blew out the weakest parts of their ranges, so our equity may now be 22% equity 4 ways. 16 * .22 - 2 = 1.52. This is clearly worse than calling.
And wait, what if villain 3 bets us? This could happen. And in fact, it could happen a good deal (25%+). When that happens, we now could have 22.5% equity three ways approximately. 17 * .225 - 3 = 0.825. If it's HU and he three bets, it may be more like 14 * .329 - 3 = 1.606 bets.
So yes, raising is clearly better when we present the binary case of "well it'll be 4 ways or HU". But that's not how poker works.
Moreover, if OP's goal is to move up, I can tell you right now that the dudes who raise bottom pair on this board open themselves up to get the hell exploited out of them (I cannot tell you how many times I've 3 bet and barreled hands like 88 in a similar spot for value here). So just like the argument of "hey it's profitable to limp 22 UTG in a passive 4-8 game" is dumb because it won't be as you move up, the same goes for this. Even if it's best in a vacuum, it plays terrible in the long run.