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Micro-Small Stakes Limit Discussions about micro-small stakes Texas Hold'em (all stakes up to around 15/30)

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Old 09-02-2017, 07:52 PM   #76
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

Let's get to the basics of this situation. I said this earlier:

Quote:
Now, 33 has a little over 40% equity vs that range.
Now, what is my opponent going to do that's so bad for my realizable equity that I will make numerous -ev plays postflop? Please tell me because I just don't see it.
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Old 09-02-2017, 08:53 PM   #77
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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Originally Posted by Bob148 View Post
This is your problem with discounting your own poker abilities as well as discounting your equity in the pot.
Fine, I can live with that

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Now, what is my opponent going to do that's so bad for my realizable equity that I will make numerous -ev plays postflop? Please tell me because I just don't see it.
I think what will happen often is that when you will call down with 33 or pair of A, you will at best be break even ( and probably a bit -ev ) when you call the river bet and if you win the pot, it's because you are OOP u will have miss value when the hand get check on the river behind.

And this is not taking account all those time you won't even get to the river when you get bluff out (or you will be stuck to give a ton of free card that could end up drawing out on you) when you will be force to fold the best hand on bad board .
Leaving on top of that all the money pf you will lose in investment because you will have a worst hand range .

Anyway, for those hands to be playable (imo) in HJ , the table need being really soft without certain condition like the one I just describe.

Of course if no one is ready to challenge your 30% + open range by simply calling , than go for it .
But those condition are more on the side of great condition than soft condition .
Guess it is just semantic .

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 09-02-2017 at 09:10 PM.
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Old 09-02-2017, 09:34 PM   #78
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

Btw I ran some simulation , 33 is not doing to poorly but still it as at max 40% ( which of course is impossible to fully have because you are OOP) and A7o runs at 37% and still being OOP.

Now you will lose money on the long run and this is in the best case scenario.
Because has soon one poor guy would enter the pot, because bad player don't care if it is raise or 3bet ( like in the bb) , than you take the worst of it .

With a 50% range from bb, A7o runs at 25% and 33 runs at 27% and you are stuck in the middle...

All I am saying is you must face some very passif table and poor play to be able to squeeze profit from those "bad hands".

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 09-02-2017 at 09:52 PM.
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Old 09-02-2017, 10:03 PM   #79
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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u will have miss value when the hand get check on the river behind.
Did you forget about the money in the pot? This is significant ev that you're earning when you win hands this way. This is exactly what you're not getting.

Either they will check back a lot, in which case we earn significant ev this way, or they bet a lot, in which case we're profiting from catching bluffs. There isn't a magic formula that good players can use to get rid of all the leftover junk in their range in order to make our life miserable with 33 or A7o.
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Old 09-02-2017, 10:08 PM   #80
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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Now, what is my opponent going to do that's so bad for my realizable equity that I will make numerous -ev plays postflop? Please tell me because I just don't see it.
He doesn't have to do very much special, and he doesn't have to be a crusher. Simply the fact that you are out of position with a hand that is tough to know if it is best or not on both boards makes it very difficult to realize your full equity, and I think anything the programs say for hot and cold equity needs to be discounted significantly.
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Old 09-02-2017, 10:19 PM   #81
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

"Nothing special " isn't a strategy.
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Old 09-02-2017, 10:49 PM   #82
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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Did you forget about the money in the pot? This is significant ev that you're earning when you win hands this way. This is exactly what you're not getting.
The money in the pot is in the majority money u put in with less equity than your opponent .
And your saying that OOP, with a hand range weaker you will get your money back ?

You lose money because at best you break even on your 40% equity ( even tho you never Will be that high because position has value no matter how you want to play it ), so you lose .

To make a real break even , you need OOP, to exploit by at least 10-15% equity, a guy with position on you with a very good (not hard to play) 13-15% hand range with hands like 33,A7o ?

Good luck with that .
Your talking like 10% equity means like nothing and it's easy to recoup by awesome play.
Maybe in blinds battle because the hand range are so wide but not facing 3bet range in the 15% vicinity.

And you are only speaking about bluff catcher...
Often you will get own when it will be value vs value simply because he got better pp and A and nvm if you think you will be able to bluff him out vs that range .

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 09-02-2017 at 10:58 PM.
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Old 09-02-2017, 10:54 PM   #83
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

No your math is way off because you're only 3 betting me 15% of the time.

Once you 3 bet me, the preflop raise is a sunk cost.
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:06 PM   #84
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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nvm if you think you will be able to bluff him out vs that range .
Lol what? Why would I ever turn A7 or 33 into a bluff in limit holdem?
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:07 PM   #85
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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No your math is way off because you're only 3 betting me 15% of the time.

Once you 3 bet me, the preflop raise is a sunk cost.
I don't get what your saying about only 15% of the time.
What does It matter sunk cost pf.
It is still money you put in bad with a weak hand .
If that was not important, playing tag would make no sense and calling station would have the best strategy because it's only pf...
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:08 PM   #86
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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Lol what? Why would I ever turn A7 or 33 into a bluff in limit holdem?
How you expect to make money than if not by trying to blow him out of the pot ?
Your Ahigh will never win because his simply only got better A, same thing with pp.
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:10 PM   #87
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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I don't get what your saying about only 15% of the time.
What about my ev the other 85% of the time? Doesn't that count for something here since you're claiming that opening 33 or A7o is unprofitable from the HJ?
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:11 PM   #88
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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Your Ahigh will never win because his simply only got better A, same thing with pp.
What about the lol JTs that you claim to have in your 3 bet range?
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:13 PM   #89
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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How you expect to make money than if not by trying to blow him out of the pot ?
I've already said how. I'm just quoting this to reiterate that bluffing 33 or A7o in a 3 bet pot HJ vs an in position 3 bettor is bad poker. Like, really ****ing bad poker.
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:22 PM   #90
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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"Nothing special " isn't a strategy.
Did you really take nothing of importance from my post?
Because this comment is completely assinine.
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:24 PM   #91
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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Lol what? Why would I ever turn A7 or 33 into a bluff in limit holdem?
Do you really think this is impossible?
Do you realize that there are sometimes that 33 is counterfeited and playing the board?
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:25 PM   #92
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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What about my ev the other 85% of the time? Doesn't that count for something here since you're claiming that opening 33 or A7o is unprofitable from the HJ?
It depends what your aiming for .
You vs bb yeah, if you can accomplish it good , but I doubt it will happens.

But what ar you aiming for , what situation , to think those hands ar profitable from HJ ?
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:27 PM   #93
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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Did you really take nothing of importance from my post?
Because this comment is completely assinine.
Yes rob, you're right that being out of position makes our realizable equity < our raw equity.

I was basically being a smartass because that's completely obvious to anyone that has studied any poker at all.
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:28 PM   #94
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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Do you really think this is impossible?
Do you realize that there are sometimes that 33 is counterfeited and playing the board?
In that case I no longer have a pair of threes, so no I don't consider that to be turning 33 into a bluff.
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:30 PM   #95
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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You vs bb yeah, if you can accomplish it good , but I doubt it will happens.
So you've never ever played heads up vs the big blind from the HJ? I have, and I consider it to be quite a profitable position with both A7o and 33.
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:33 PM   #96
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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Yes rob, you're right that being out of position makes our realizable equity < our raw equity.

I was basically being a smartass because that's completely obvious to anyone that has studied any poker at all.
Well I didn't get that you realized it from your posts.

Maybe I just shouldn't comment on anything you post though, because although I believe you understand some things about theory and have obviously put in a good amount of work and study, almost all your posts seem pretty much unapplicable in any real world game I have ever played, as someone who has paid his bills from live poker games for almost 10 years now.
You seem like someone who likes the theory but hasn't played much in real games.
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:34 PM   #97
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

Funny I get that all the time.

You seem like someone that doesn't know anything about theory yet can beat live games because they're ridiculously soft.
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:37 PM   #98
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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What about the lol JTs that you claim to have in your 3 bet range?
I would have JTs QTs because you have too much little pp in your range where I got an edge postflop, even more so IP.
A7 and the like are very close in equity but play very badly OOP when lot of broadway on board.
I mean 33 and A7 can sustain a bit of heat for bluff catching but a lot of board they won't be able to .
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:38 PM   #99
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

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Your Ahigh will never win because his simply only got better A, same thing with pp.
Quote:
What about the lol JTs that you claim to have in your 3 bet range?
I hope this message didn't get overlooked, because it's crucial to understanding the realization of a lot of my expected value with 33 and A7o.
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Old 09-02-2017, 11:40 PM   #100
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Re: 8/16 - AKo. Best play OTF?

How do you plan to play the JTs and QTs postflop?
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