Quote:
Originally Posted by DTLB
What you say makes a lot of sense as always but I guess where I struggle is the turn after I cbet. I can expect both players to call flop like 90% of the time and then if I don't improve OTT I'll have to check and leave myself open to being bluffed or semi-bluffed off my hand. So it feels like I've cbet for nothing although I don't see a better alternative as it's the same thing if I x/c as monikrazy suggested.
Underlined 1: Where does that 90% come from, and how confident are you that it's right? (I don't know what the percent would be, as it would depend a lot on the open-raising range of MP and the cold-calling range of CO, as well as their flop-peeling tendencies.)
Bolded: Yes, this happens. And if you never leave yourself open to this possibility, you're betting way too much.
Underlined 2: Is it for nothing? The purpose of a value bet is that you get called by worse hands. That means if you bet and they call, and they had worse hands, you've done your job. Also, if you bet and the fold better hands, you've also done your job. As the pot gets bigger, you don't even mind as much if you bet and they start folding worse hands.
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Here's the thing: You should have a fairly narrow 3-bet range from SB against a MP raise. If you always checked unpaired cards on the flop and always bet when you have a pair of something, your play becomes extremely transparent. So there's value to betting unpaired hands (alternatively, checking pairs) in terms of keeping your range balanced.
That being said, I don't mind a check-call on the flop if it's balanced and if you're willing to check-call stronger hands sometimes (maybe AA/KK). But I'd rather bet with those hands, so I'll bet unpaired hands as well.
Try thinking about this spot as MP. Look at your entire open-raising range and think about how you might respond to SB in this spot. Would you open 77 from MP? If so, you just got 3-bet by an out of position player and he's continuing to fire at you. Your hand isn't likely to improve and the board is potentially going to get kind of scary. Are you willing to go three bets to show this down? What about 99? You might not even be all that happy with QJs (though you're probably more inclined to show it down).