Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
KQ is the only two pair you have here. Do you raise 77 preflop after 3 limpers? I don't. Here's the hand range I see playing to this point (up to the river bet):
[K567Q board]
KK - 3 combos
QQ - 3 combos
KQ - 9 combos
AA - 6 combos
AK - 12 combos
KJ - 12 combos
KTs - 3 combos
Total: 48 combos
If KQ is your lower calling limit, and you're 3-betting KK/QQ, here's how your range looks:
3-bet: 12.5%
Call: 18.75%
Fold: 68.75%
At a theoretical level, given that you're getting 13:1 and you're folding 2/3 of the time, this is super-super exploitable.
At a practical level, it's helpful that very few people are taking shots at you like this, but it's also true that people do strange things. And they only need to do it a small percent of the time for this call to be correct.
At a meta level, I think I'd rather have the reputation for paying off weird river plays than folding to them. Being unbluffable is a better image to have than being a hero-folder.
I still pay this off all day long with AK.
this is a good summary. Here's what my VB range looks like (given I'm advocating for a fold here):
55+, 65s, 76s, KQ, K7s, K6s, K5s, 98s, KTs+, KJ+. I think this covers all of my sets, straights, and two pairs.
So bucket them:
Straight - 4 combos (98s)
Set - 15 combos (KK, QQ, 77, 66, 55)
Two pair - I'm lazy so call it 20 combos (KQ, K7s, K6s, K5s, 76s, 65s)
Overpair - 6 (AA)
Top pair - 27 (AK, KJ, KTs)
Possibly too thin anyway: 24 (88-JJ)
So yeah, I'm folding over half my combos here, which is obviously nutball. If I remove the 88-JJ crap that I possibly shouldn't be betting river with anyway, it's still 62.5% are a bet/call or bet/3 bet.
Doing the combos, I do think Aaron W is probably right that if we're betting 88-JJ for value, we're opening ourselves to a world of hurt by bet/folding AK. It's a little more justified w/ a nittier river betting range, because even though we're folding too much, it's not so obvious that we're folding big hands frequently.
It's possible OP can make an exploitative fold here because I'm sure he's not viewed as someone to take a shot at on the river. It might be too much for me to do so, though.