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Old 09-10-2017, 10:03 PM   #26
Aaron W.
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by Montrealcorp View Post
And truthfully i am kind of surprise you hold that conclusion vs my point of view .

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...y-otr-1686573/

post 4 :

Imo this is exactly the same thing except we dont have 77 but AA and it is not pf but on the flop.

If you advocate not raising 77 pf because the river is pretty far off but you still have a slight equity edge pf then it should be the same thing with AA here imo.
They are similar in concept, but differ in the details. With 77 in SB, your equity edge is small and you have a reasonable expectation that your opponents hold a lot of overcards to your 77. In this hand, especially given the preflop action, you don't have a reasonable expectation to fear the straight draw here, and no particular reason to fear a flush draw. Yes, flush draws can be out there, but assuming a random distribution of suits, the probability of one being out there isn't big enough to be a concern. This is why I asked:

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How often is sometimes? And how often is not-sometimes?
Go ahead and play with hand ranges a bit. I would be surprised if any realistic-looking hand ranges gave you a flop equity of less than about 40%. (My gut reflex tells me your equity probably is at least in the 60% range.) Your 77 preflop equity edge is not going to be anywhere as large.

Since you've listed specific hands, I want to remind you that we're looking at ranges. Yes, it could be that you're about to get coolered because the collective outs have you crushed. But this is just not that likely.

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I admit, i thought this hand was 5handed , not 4 and i thought their was limper and not raised and 3bet right away, making drawy hands less likely into their ranges so our edge should be bigger.

But imo the way i was thinking in respond to lawdude 7handed and mine of being 5+ handed has some merits.
I'm not going to say that it's without merit. But I think you've misapplied those merits and given them much more weight than they should have been.
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Old 09-10-2017, 10:06 PM   #27
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by chillrob View Post
I was thinking something like this as well. When I have AA in a multiway spot like this I am hoping for less action and, while not giving up, am looking for a reason to fold.
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Originally Posted by DonkeyOnTilt View Post
You mean looking for a way to showdown as cheaply as possible.
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Yeah, maybe that is a better way to put it, but if there is a lot of action I still think you're usually going to be behind here. JJ isn't likely to go crazy here.
I think this is too MUBSY on the flop. Definitely raise once there. On this particular turn, I would be wary if you got "too much" action. But if the turn/river completed no particular draws (say, running 2s), I'm not as afraid of action.
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Old 09-11-2017, 12:20 PM   #28
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by Montrealcorp View Post
I get that but i for fun use those 4 hands you enumerated.
AA vs JJ , AsKs and 8d7d .

Of course the chance of exactly those hand are vs you are low
They're lower than you think. Both JJ and AsKs were given to EP, so you're not going to see them both at the same time.

Normally I just kind of let these sorts of oversights go, but this seems to be integral to your point, that our edge is so thin (a few percent) that it's not worth raising until we get an edge big enough to drive an 18 wheeler through.

To be honest I haven't worked out the exact ranges but when you include all the A7o and AQo and 42s I think you'll see we're not getting equity as thin as you think (I'm going to let Aaron deal with the math on this).

You seem to take it as a given that we'll magically be able to tell when we're ahead on the turn. What cards exactly will we raise? If we eliminate nines, eights, fives, fours, and spades, that's nearly a third of the time we're going to ... look for offramps? What happens when T+ hits, are we going to get scared that EP hit a set? Most importantly, when someone binks on the turn, how expensive is it for us to fogure out?

Pushing draw heavy flops deos mean we put in quite a few bets at relatively small equity. But it also means people are willing to put in more action because it's more likely they have a draw.

Consider this: I'm way more likely to consider folding AA on the turn after a K72r flop if I'm getting action (because what can they have and how many outs would I have against it) than on the turn after a 765tt flop with the same action (because people will pump and call that flop with all sorts of hands I crush).
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Old 09-11-2017, 02:56 PM   #29
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
I think this is too MUBSY on the flop. Definitely raise once there. On this particular turn, I would be wary if you got "too much" action. But if the turn/river completed no particular draws (say, running 2s), I'm not as afraid of action.
Running 2s is a wonderful runout as we now beat all two pair hands.
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Old 09-11-2017, 04:58 PM   #30
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

it's amusing that in 2017 this is still a thread.

has it ever happend that the consensus outcome of an mlhe AA multiway hand is "wait for the turn"? If yes, I'd like to re-read that post
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Old 09-11-2017, 05:26 PM   #31
Aaron W.
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Running 2s is a wonderful runout as we now beat all two pair hands.
Heh -- You're not wrong with this observation, even if it's really a technicality and unrelated to the primary point.

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Old 09-11-2017, 05:49 PM   #32
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by callipygian View Post
Aaron is likely going to explain the flaws in the rest of your post but I'd like to address the flaw in this part.

The common thinking is this, turn bet is bigger, I want to make a bigger raise, therefore raise the turn.

The flaw is this: sometimes you get to raise both streets, and sometimes you get to raise more than once. If you raise the flop, maybe JJ will 3-bet and then you get to cap, and then you get to charge 87 (which is never folding the flop) four bets. And sometimes the turn bricks off and EP redonks because JJ is still an overpair and you get to raise the turn anyway. And sometimes EP bets the flop with AsKs and then checks the turn because his equity has changed drastically.
Further, when you raise the flop, a lot of weak draws like gutshot+OC type hands will call us and put tons of money into the pot (and then will also often call another bet on the turn). You can raise this flop and get 5 callers for 2 bets sometimes.

Whereas if you wait for the turn, you will blow those hands out of the water. I'm pretty sure that your average pot size when your aces hold up is A LOT smaller when you wait for the turn.
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Old 09-11-2017, 06:55 PM   #33
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

FWiW, there's actually a hand example in Miller's SSHE that's very similar to this hand, and he advocates waiting until a brick turn to raise. He says both the flop raise and turn raise are profitable, but argues that the brick turn raise is more profitable.
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Old 09-11-2017, 07:02 PM   #34
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by DTLB View Post
FWiW, there's actually a hand example in Miller's SSHE that's very similar to this hand, and he advocates waiting until a brick turn to raise. He says both the flop raise and turn raise are profitable, but argues that the brick turn raise is more profitable.
In that example where Miller suggests waiting for the turn, doesn't Hero have TT? The point being that we want to dodge overcards before raising.
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Old 09-11-2017, 07:09 PM   #35
Aaron W.
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by Rooksx View Post
In that example where Miller suggests waiting for the turn, doesn't Hero have TT? The point being that we want to dodge overcards before raising.
My first reaction was that there was a difference in relative position as well. I feel as though hero was closing the action (or at least close to it).
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Old 09-11-2017, 07:55 PM   #36
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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In that example where Miller suggests waiting for the turn, doesn't Hero have TT? The point being that we want to dodge overcards before raising.
I know the TT hand you're referring to but no it's a different hand. Hero had KK in the example I'm talking about. It's page 163 if you wanna check it out.
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Old 09-12-2017, 11:55 AM   #37
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

You know, it's also possible that *GASP* Ed Miller was wrong about something.
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