Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp
I get that but i for fun use those 4 hands you enumerated.
AA vs JJ , AsKs and 8d7d .
Of course the chance of exactly those hand are vs you are low
They're lower than you think. Both JJ and AsKs were given to EP, so you're not going to see them both at the same time.
Normally I just kind of let these sorts of oversights go, but this seems to be integral to your point, that our edge is so thin (a few percent) that it's not worth raising until we get an edge big enough to drive an 18 wheeler through.
To be honest I haven't worked out the exact ranges but when you include all the A7o and AQo and 42s I think you'll see we're not getting equity as thin as you think (I'm going to let Aaron deal with the math on this).
You seem to take it as a given that we'll magically be able to tell when we're ahead on the turn. What cards exactly will we raise? If we eliminate nines, eights, fives, fours, and spades, that's nearly a third of the time we're going to ... look for offramps? What happens when T+ hits, are we going to get scared that EP hit a set? Most importantly, when someone binks on the turn, how expensive is it for us to fogure out?
Pushing draw heavy flops deos mean we put in quite a few bets at relatively small equity. But it also means people are willing to put in more action because it's more likely they have a draw.
Consider this: I'm way more likely to consider folding AA on the turn after a K72r flop if I'm getting action (because what can they have and how many outs would I have against it) than on the turn after a 765tt flop with the same action (because people will pump and call that flop with all sorts of hands I crush).