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Old 08-26-2017, 06:34 AM   #1
DTLB
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8/16 - AA, yucky flop

7-handed, EP calling station raises, I 3b AA in MP, blinds call, EP calls

4-way (12 SB): 765
EP bets, I flat intending to raise a brick turn since raising now doesn't protect my hand with the pot so big. Blinds call. Both are typical 8/16 fish.

4-way (8 BB): 9
Not a brick. EP bets.

Best play?
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Old 08-26-2017, 08:41 AM   #2
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

Probably check call, evaluate on river. Would he ever do this with like 9/10ss?
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Old 08-26-2017, 10:53 AM   #3
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by DTLB View Post
EP bets, I flat intending to raise a brick turn since raising now doesn't protect my hand with the pot so big.
What do you think you mean by "protecting your hand"? As in, what is the goal of "protecting your hand"?
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Old 08-26-2017, 10:56 AM   #4
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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What do you think you mean by "protecting your hand"? As in, what is the goal of "protecting your hand"?
Right I raise the flop because you probably have the best hand.

As played just call the turn and evaluate river.
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Old 08-26-2017, 05:37 PM   #5
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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What do you think you mean by "protecting your hand"? As in, what is the goal of "protecting your hand"?
Well if I raise flop the blinds will be getting 15:2 to call which is a great price for any draw. Even a GS would be able to call and make up for the remaining odds OTT if they hit. No one's folding anything at this point so a raise doesn't protect my hand.

Plus if I raise and everyone calls, the pot will be 10 BB and it'll likely get X to me OTT. If it's a brick and I bet, then everyone is getting 11:1 odds to start with...which is direct odds for even a GS to call.

If I flat the flop donk bet and every calls however, the pot with be 8 BB OTT and EP will likely bet again. Now if it's a brick and I raise, the blinds are facing odds of 6.5:1. It's a lot harder for people to call two bets cold OTT than OTF since the price doubled and there's just one card left to come.
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Old 08-27-2017, 12:54 AM   #6
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Well if I raise flop the blinds will be getting 15:2 to call which is a great price for any draw. Even a GS would be able to call and make up for the remaining odds OTT if they hit. No one's folding anything at this point so a raise doesn't protect my hand.
To me, the logic sounds like this: "Because I can't give them a bad price to outdraw me, I'll give them an *amazing* price instead."

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Plus if I raise and everyone calls, the pot will be 10 BB and it'll likely get X to me OTT. If it's a brick and I bet, then everyone is getting 11:1 odds to start with...which is direct odds for even a GS to call.
Because getting lots of bets in when you have the best hand is bad?

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If I flat the flop donk bet and every calls however, the pot with be 8 BB OTT and EP will likely bet again. Now if it's a brick and I raise, the blinds are facing odds of 6.5:1. It's a lot harder for people to call two bets cold OTT than OTF since the price doubled and there's just one card left to come.
I think you're playing for the wrong goals.

Consider the following scenarios:

1) You have the best hand and your opponents call your raise.
2) You have the best hand and your opponents fold to your raise.

Which one do you think makes more money?
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Old 08-27-2017, 03:28 AM   #7
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Consider the following scenarios:

1) You have the best hand and your opponents call your raise.
2) You have the best hand and your opponents fold to your raise.

Which one do you think makes more money?
The answer to this depends totally on how big the pot is and how many outs the opponents have to beat you, but often you should prefer your opponents to fold live draws, especially in limit poker when the bets are not large and opponents are often drawing very live.
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Old 08-27-2017, 11:16 AM   #8
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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The answer to this depends totally on how big the pot is and how many outs the opponents have to beat you, but often you should prefer your opponents to fold live draws, especially in limit poker when the bets are not large and opponents are often drawing very live.
Context: Raised pot, as in what's going on in this hand.

Edit: I'll clarify because this is a little vague. In this spot, sooooo much has to run perfectly for you to even get a chance to offer your opponents bad odds to draw. The whole wait until the turn to raise to protect your hand is really tough to pull off in practice, and requires your opponents to cooperate fully. So you can offer super-awesome odds on the flop with the hopes of getting them to fold to a raise on the turn, or you can just charge the most you can right now.

Multiway limit hold'em is primarily about getting value from your hands. That means betting/raising when you have the best hand.

Last edited by Aaron W.; 08-27-2017 at 11:25 AM.
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Old 08-27-2017, 11:24 AM   #9
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

In a raised pot, you're even more likely to want your opponents to fold to your raise.
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Old 09-02-2017, 05:08 AM   #10
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

raise the flop. i call with black aces.

turn, call. this is not a blank and we can see what the blinds do.
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Old 09-04-2017, 11:37 PM   #11
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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In a raised pot, you're even more likely to want your opponents to fold to your raise.
On the turn, for example, if your opponent has 8 outs, you want him to fold if there is more than 18 small bets in the pot, and call if there is less. That's a lot for 2 or 3 people seeing the flop. I haven't bothered taking it back to the flop, but the same principle is involved. There needs to be an unusually large pot before it is better for you if your opponent folds a standard draw (like OESD).

Getting an opponent to call when behind is the bread and butter of limit hold'em.
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Old 09-04-2017, 11:57 PM   #12
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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On the turn, for example, if your opponent has 8 outs, you want him to fold if there is more than 18 small bets in the pot, and call if there is less. That's a lot for 2 or 3 people seeing the flop. I haven't bothered taking it back to the flop, but the same principle is involved. There needs to be an unusually large pot before it is better for you if your opponent folds a standard draw (like OESD).

Getting an opponent to call when behind is the bread and butter of limit hold'em.
Where are you getting those numbers? I figure that someone with an 8-outer on the turn only needs about 11 small bets for his call to be correct, so you'd love him to fold if the pot is bigger than that, and that's not a tough number to get to in a raised multiway pot.
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Old 09-05-2017, 12:38 AM   #13
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

What is a "brick"?
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Old 09-05-2017, 01:07 AM   #14
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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What is a "brick"?
A card that is unlikely to help anyone.
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Old 09-08-2017, 02:13 PM   #15
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

Just raise the damned flop. Seriously. Calling with the intention of raising a blank turn is outsmarting yourself here and is FPS. Raising the flop 7 handed on a draw heavy board shovels a lot of money into the pot.
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Old 09-10-2017, 02:48 AM   #16
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Just raise the damned flop. Seriously. Calling with the intention of raising a blank turn is outsmarting yourself here and is FPS. Raising the flop 7 handed on a draw heavy board shovels a lot of money into the pot.
I don't get it.
I rather wait the turn , it is just not more money that we actually put in the pot when we raise the turn, our equity can change significantly as well, which sometimes we wished not having put so many bets in the pot on the flop when we weren't that much of a favorite on the flop compare to the turn.

The only factor that could make you want to put the action on the flop is you would have bad position preventing you to raise the turn .
OR we actually had a set...

Has the draw gets large and larger, the drawing hand pays less and less and may becomes of a favorite.
So your plan of charging the draw is futile on the flop, multiway like 5 players and very volatile, I doubt your a favorite .

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 09-10-2017 at 03:09 AM.
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Old 09-10-2017, 10:15 AM   #17
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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I don't get it.
I rather wait the turn , it is just not more money that we actually put in the pot when we raise the turn, our equity can change significantly as well, which sometimes we wished not having put so many bets in the pot on the flop when we weren't that much of a favorite on the flop compare to the turn.
How often is sometimes? And how often is not-sometimes?

Quote:
Has the draw gets large and larger, the drawing hand pays less and less and may becomes of a favorite.
This isn't Omaha - There aren't that many draws that can have above 50% equity.

Quote:
So your plan of charging the draw is futile on the flop, multiway like 5 players and very volatile, I doubt your a favorite .
There's a difference between being a favorite and having an edge. But the difference is not that one is profitable and the other is not.
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Old 09-10-2017, 11:56 AM   #18
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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more money that we actually put in the pot when we raise the turn
Aaron is likely going to explain the flaws in the rest of your post but I'd like to address the flaw in this part.

The common thinking is this, turn bet is bigger, I want to make a bigger raise, therefore raise the turn.

The flaw is this: sometimes you get to raise both streets, and sometimes you get to raise more than once. If you raise the flop, maybe JJ will 3-bet and then you get to cap, and then you get to charge 87 (which is never folding the flop) four bets. And sometimes the turn bricks off and EP redonks because JJ is still an overpair and you get to raise the turn anyway. And sometimes EP bets the flop with AsKs and then checks the turn because his equity has changed drastically.
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Old 09-10-2017, 03:14 PM   #19
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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This isn't Omaha - There aren't that many draws that can have above 50% equity.
You thinking in term of HU.
When it is 5 players +, it doesnt need to be 1 player that needs to have a huge draw vs AA, all of players combine makes a difference vs the made hand like AA and the ones with the draws.

Maybe someone has a decent draw like a flush draw which will have higher Equity on the flop than a pp like AA .
The AA equity should be lower from the other weaker draws the other 3+player has while the flush draw always will retain is 33% equity.

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 09-10-2017 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 09-10-2017, 03:26 PM   #20
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by callipygian View Post

The flaw is this: sometimes you get to raise both streets, and sometimes you get to raise more than once. If you raise the flop, maybe JJ will 3-bet and then you get to cap, and then you get to charge 87 (which is never folding the flop) four bets. And sometimes the turn bricks off and EP redonks because JJ is still an overpair and you get to raise the turn anyway. And sometimes EP bets the flop with AsKs and then checks the turn because his equity has changed drastically.
I get that but i for fun use those 4 hands you enumerated.
AA vs JJ , AsKs and 8d7d .

Of course the chance of exactly those hand are vs you are low but if like lawdude said about 7 handed pot and me when i said 5+ players, having that kind of ranges ( with some player mix in between them folding the flop with weaker hands ) it should not hard to represent some decent reality.

AA 28%
AsKs 36%
JJ 6%
8d7d 30%

and if you wait turn and the 2h for example it now the hand changes drasticly.

AA 50%
AsKs 21%
JJ 4%
8d7d 25%

And if a bad turn card hit, well it did not matter you did not put much action on the flop because you werent that ahead anyway.

here it is 4 handed so the number of player might not be too much critical yet but when you exceed 5+ , their is a lot of hands agaisnt you where AA is probably not a favorite.

Dry flop even 7 handed i would not have a problem jammimg flop with AA even if we were 6 to the flop

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 09-10-2017 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 09-10-2017, 03:33 PM   #21
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
There's a difference between being a favorite and having an edge. But the difference is not that one is profitable and the other is not.
And truthfully i am kind of surprise you hold that conclusion vs my point of view .

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...y-otr-1686573/

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I read this as the flop was 5-handed, which means 3 limpers to SB. I wouldn't raise 77 preflop from SB in that situation. I don't think it's terrible (I'd raise 99 here all day long and I'd sometimes raise 88), but it's a bit loose for me because you're generally going to be having a tough time realizing that little bit of equity edge you've got.
Imo this is exactly the same thing except we dont have 77 but AA and it is not pf but on the flop.

If you advocate not raising 77 pf because the river is pretty far off but you still have a slight equity edge pf then it should be the same thing with AA here imo.


I admit, i thought this hand was 5handed , not 4 and i thought their was limper and not raised and 3bet right away, making drawy hands less likely into their ranges so our edge should be bigger.

But imo the way i was thinking in respond to lawdude 7handed and mine of being 5+ handed has some merits.
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Old 09-10-2017, 04:58 PM   #22
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Originally Posted by callipygian View Post
Aaron is likely going to explain the flaws in the rest of your post but I'd like to address the flaw in this part.

The common thinking is this, turn bet is bigger, I want to make a bigger raise, therefore raise the turn.

The flaw is this: sometimes you get to raise both streets, and sometimes you get to raise more than once. If you raise the flop, maybe JJ will 3-bet and then you get to cap, and then you get to charge 87 (which is never folding the flop) four bets. And sometimes the turn bricks off and EP redonks because JJ is still an overpair and you get to raise the turn anyway. And sometimes EP bets the flop with AsKs and then checks the turn because his equity has changed drastically.
Capping on a flop like this is spew, capping and then also raising a non-A turn is like mega spew
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Old 09-10-2017, 05:38 PM   #23
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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Capping on a flop like this is spew, capping and then also raising a non-A turn is like mega spew
I was thinking something like this as well. When I have AA in a multiway spot like this I am hoping for less action and, while not giving up, am looking for a reason to fold.
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Old 09-10-2017, 06:27 PM   #24
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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I was thinking something like this as well. When I have AA in a multiway spot like this I am hoping for less action and, while not giving up, am looking for a reason to fold.
You mean looking for a way to showdown as cheaply as possible.
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Old 09-10-2017, 06:41 PM   #25
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Re: 8/16 - AA, yucky flop

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You mean looking for a way to showdown as cheaply as possible.
Yeah, maybe that is a better way to put it, but if there is a lot of action I still think you're usually going to be behind here. JJ isn't likely to go crazy here.
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