They are similar in concept, but differ in the details. With 77 in SB, your equity edge is small and you have a reasonable expectation that your opponents hold a lot of overcards to your 77. In this hand, especially given the preflop action, you don't have a reasonable expectation to fear the straight draw here, and no particular reason to fear a flush draw. Yes, flush draws can be out there, but assuming a random distribution of suits, the probability of one being out there isn't big enough to be a concern. This is why I asked:

Go ahead and play with hand ranges a bit. I would be surprised if any realistic-looking hand ranges gave you a flop equity of less than about 40%. (My gut reflex tells me your equity probably is at least in the 60% range.) Your 77 preflop equity edge is not going to be anywhere as large.

Since you've listed specific hands, I want to remind you that we're looking at ranges. Yes, it could be that you're about to get coolered because the collective outs have you crushed. But this is just not that likely.

I'm not going to say that it's without merit. But I think you've misapplied those merits and given them much more weight than they should have been.

I think this is too MUBSY on the flop. Definitely raise once there. On this particular turn, I would be wary if you got "too much" action. But if the turn/river completed no particular draws (say, running 2s), I'm not as afraid of action.

They're lower than you think. Both JJ and AsKs were given to EP, so you're not going to see them both at the same time.

Normally I just kind of let these sorts of oversights go, but this seems to be integral to your point, that our edge is so thin (a few percent) that it's not worth raising until we get an edge big enough to drive an 18 wheeler through.

To be honest I haven't worked out the exact ranges but when you include all the A7o and AQo and 42s I think you'll see we're not getting equity as thin as you think (I'm going to let Aaron deal with the math on this).

You seem to take it as a given that we'll magically be able to tell when we're ahead on the turn. What cards exactly will we raise? If we eliminate nines, eights, fives, fours, and spades, that's nearly a third of the time we're going to ... look for offramps? What happens when T+ hits, are we going to get scared that EP hit a set? Most importantly, when someone binks on the turn, how expensive is it for us to fogure out?

Pushing draw heavy flops deos mean we put in quite a few bets at relatively small equity. But it also means people are willing to put in more action because it's more likely they have a draw.

Consider this: I'm way more likely to consider folding AA on the turn after a K72r flop if I'm getting action (because what can they have and how many outs would I have against it) than on the turn after a 765tt flop with the same action (because people will pump and call that flop with all sorts of hands I crush).

Running 2s is a wonderful runout as we now beat all two pair hands.

it's amusing that in 2017 this is still a thread.

has it ever happend that the consensus outcome of an mlhe AA multiway hand is "wait for the turn"? If yes, I'd like to re-read that post

Heh -- You're not wrong with this observation, even if it's really a technicality and unrelated to the primary point.

Further, when you raise the flop, a lot of weak draws like gutshot+OC type hands will call us and put tons of money into the pot (and then will also often call another bet on the turn). You can raise this flop and get 5 callers for 2 bets sometimes.

Whereas if you wait for the turn, you will blow those hands out of the water. I'm pretty sure that your average pot size when your aces hold up is A LOT smaller when you wait for the turn.

FWiW, there's actually a hand example in Miller's SSHE that's very similar to this hand, and he advocates waiting until a brick turn to raise. He says both the flop raise and turn raise are profitable, but argues that the brick turn raise is more profitable.

In that example where Miller suggests waiting for the turn, doesn't Hero have TT? The point being that we want to dodge overcards before raising.

My first reaction was that there was a difference in relative position as well. I feel as though hero was closing the action (or at least close to it).

I know the TT hand you're referring to but no it's a different hand. Hero had KK in the example I'm talking about. It's page 163 if you wanna check it out.

You know, it's also possible that *GASP* Ed Miller was wrong about something.