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Old 09-28-2017, 07:27 PM   #1
DTLB
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8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

UTG limps, I raise AA in EP2, CO, BN, blinds and UTG call.

6-way (12 SB): Q63
UTG bets, I raise, CO and BN call, blinds fold, UTG 3b, I cap, all call.

4-way (14 BB): 7
UTG bets, I raise, folds to UTG who 3bets.

UTG is LAG and loves to raise draws especially on wet boards, but this flop was bone dry. She's showing a ton of aggression despite my aggression as the PFR.

Best play?
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Old 09-28-2017, 08:01 PM   #2
Aaron W.
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

Get to showdown. Hope that he has KQ/QJs and overplayed his hand. I might not raise his turn bet. I might sometimes also have called the flop 3-bet and raised the turn. Pot is getting large and I'd rather have more chances of getting the players behind me to fold. (Compare this with capping the flop, having UTG check and you bet).
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Old 09-28-2017, 09:20 PM   #3
jdr0317
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

If he likes to overplay his draws, why would we raise the turn when the most obvious one got there?
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Old 09-28-2017, 09:25 PM   #4
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

Preflop is fine.

Flop: I"m not sure about capping the flop. It depends on UTG. As you say this is a dry board, so what is UTG 3 betting the flop with? I'm thinking 2 pair or a set.

Turn: I'm not raising the turn. UTG has played it too strong. You have position, so you can bet the river if he checks.
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Old 09-29-2017, 03:27 AM   #5
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

Do you see them 3-betting the flop and donk/3-betting the turn with a worse hand?

As AaronW points out, the obvious draw gets there... or they flopped a set (it feels that way to me here)... or they have some weird two-pair. None of those cases are good.

Feels like we're beat here. I'd put the brakes on once they donk the turn and just call down.

The pot's huge by this point, so calling seems mathematically correct... but I'm curious if anyone sees a fold here?
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Old 09-29-2017, 07:22 AM   #6
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

This is one of those spots where i know I'm beat but I say fk it and call two more times anyway. Though I suppose you can fold a queen river?
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Old 09-29-2017, 11:05 AM   #7
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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Originally Posted by chmuah View Post
As AaronW jdr0317 points out, the obvious draw gets there...
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317 View Post
If he likes to overplay his draws, why would we raise the turn when the most obvious one got there?
...

Quote:
The pot's huge by this point, so calling seems mathematically correct... but I'm curious if anyone sees a fold here?
If you believe the label that villain is LAG, then probably not. Also, even if you know villain has Q6, you have a lot of outs (aces, 7s, 3s).
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Old 09-29-2017, 11:07 AM   #8
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

Yeah, folding turn would be awful IMO. Folding river may be correct in a vacuum, but it doesn't take much wtf for calling to be just fine (and admittedly, I'd never find a fold here with AA at this pot size on this kind of board).
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Old 09-29-2017, 02:22 PM   #9
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

I would not raise the turn. At these stakes, I rarely see this line with a draw - and the only conceivable draw is 54, which just got there.

Flop cap is fine given that it's multiway. If the players behind you had folded I would call the 3bet and either call down or raise turn.
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Old 09-29-2017, 05:24 PM   #10
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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Originally Posted by jdr0317 View Post
If he likes to overplay his draws, why would we raise the turn when the most obvious one got there?
Lot more Queen than 54 in his range probably.
I like the turn raise but I stop after getting 3bet.
But I wouldn't cap flop, rather call and raise turn .
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Old 09-29-2017, 05:27 PM   #11
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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Lot more Queen than 54 in his range probably.
I like the turn raise but I stop after getting 3bet.
But I wouldn't cap flop, rather call and raise turn .
Well yeah I like that play more too. But once we raise him a second time and he still donks into us, that's enough raising for this hand.

He shouldn't have a queen here unless he's a huge spaz; hero has already told him twice that a queen is no good and he doesn't seem to care. I'm not sure what monkeys you get to play against on a regular basis, but I'd be shocked to see KQ here.
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Old 09-29-2017, 05:29 PM   #12
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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Originally Posted by jdr0317 View Post
If he likes to overplay his draws, why would we raise the turn when the most obvious one got there?
Actually the only draw got there, not the most obvious one. But that would require utg to limp pre with 54 which I don't think she'd do as a semi-reg who's not a fish. Even the fish don't do that. And presumably the 54 would be suited which makes just 4 combos. It's easier to put her on Qx, sets or even a tricky KK. I'd be more inclined to put the 54 in the ranges of the two LP players.

I didn't really want to raise turn but flatting gives the two behind me 16:1 to call so I thought it'd be better to protect my equity by raising and cutting down their odds. If one of them cold 3bets I can fold easily. Plus raising might freeze up utg and allow me a free SD OTR. Problem is utg might 3b me as played, but I thought raising was the lesser of two evils. Let me know if I'm wrong though.
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Old 09-29-2017, 05:30 PM   #13
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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Actually the only draw got there, not the most obvious one. But that would require utg to limp pre with 54 which I don't think she'd do as a semi-reg who's not a fish. Even the fish don't do that. And presumably the 54 would be suited which makes just 4 combos. It's easier to put her on Qx, sets or even a tricky KK. I'd be more inclined to put the 54 in the ranges of the two LP players.
It would be way more fishy to play KQ this way than 54s as the UTG player.
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Old 09-29-2017, 05:33 PM   #14
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

Well some hand behind us might fold to another raise on the turn and I would like them to fold their 5 outs .

Some players will cap with tptk in big pot hoping we do the same try make others player fold The flop .
But once we get 3 bet yeah, we had max value if we're good here.
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Old 09-29-2017, 05:34 PM   #15
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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It would be way more fishy to play KQ this way than 54s as the UTG player.
Agreed but we're talking about pre not post.
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Old 09-29-2017, 05:37 PM   #16
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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Agreed but we're talking about pre not post.
So if she's "not a fish", why in the world would you expect there to be enough hands to get value from?

Moreover, if you're putting her on a hand, calling and raising most turns is a much better play. Now you do get the benefit of facing the other players w/ 2 cold, and get to do it against her bet/3 bet flop range, not her bet/3 bet/call-donk turn range.

What do you think her range is and how are you doing against it?
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Old 09-29-2017, 05:51 PM   #17
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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Well some hand behind us might fold to another raise on the turn and I would like them to fold their 5 outs .
I only want them to fold their 5 outs if my hand is currently in the lead. If it's not, I'm not sure how much benefit I get from having them fold their outs. I'd need them to be holding something like 3x and river a 3 to beat Q6. That's sufficiently rare that I don't think there's enough value in trying for that parlay.
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Old 09-29-2017, 06:27 PM   #18
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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Moreover, if you're putting her on a hand, calling and raising most turns is a much better play. Now you do get the benefit of facing the other players w/ 2 cold, and get to do it against her bet/3 bet flop range, not her bet/3 bet/call-donk turn range.
Yes I agree with this. I like flatting her flop 3b and raising turn. I definitely felt during the hand that I was overplaying it.
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Old 09-29-2017, 06:35 PM   #19
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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Lot more Queen than 54 in his range probably.
I like the turn raise but I stop after getting 3bet.
But I wouldn't cap flop, rather call and raise turn .
This is by far the best line heads up, but in a 4 way pot of this size where you are not last to act, I think capping is superior. If you have the best hand (and you often do), then getting two extra players to put in an extra BB is a huge coup.
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Old 10-05-2017, 01:35 PM   #20
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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What do you think her range is and how are you doing against it?
this
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Old 10-11-2017, 12:14 PM   #21
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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Yes I agree with this. I like flatting her flop 3b and raising turn. I definitely felt during the hand that I was overplaying it.
I wasn't kidding when I asked what you think her range is and how you're doing against it, though.

These questions are important to answer because it'll help you mathematically prove out decisions going forward, versus just having us tell you what to do
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Old 10-13-2017, 08:34 PM   #22
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

The only hands she should really have here are flopped sets and an oddly played KK, AA. OTT I would go into calldown mode, UTG limped in pre and raised us at every opportunity possible. Expect to lose to 33, 66 but don't fold as the pot is large.
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Old 10-14-2017, 05:05 PM   #23
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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I wasn't kidding when I asked what you think her range is and how you're doing against it, though.

These questions are important to answer because it'll help you mathematically prove out decisions going forward, versus just having us tell you what to do
At this point I think it's almost exclusively sets. I block AQ and I doubt she'd 3b KK OTT if she had played it tricky pre. I don't see any possible 2P and 54 seems fairly unlikely for being utg.

This is why I posted, because I felt like I was drawing thin or dead but I know we're not supposed to fold in huge pots.
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Old 10-14-2017, 11:00 PM   #24
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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At this point I think it's almost exclusively sets. I block AQ and I doubt she'd 3b KK OTT if she had played it tricky pre. I don't see any possible 2P and 54 seems fairly unlikely for being utg.

This is why I posted, because I felt like I was drawing thin or dead but I know we're not supposed to fold in huge pots.
We don't care about her 3 bet range.

What's her range when she donks turn and how are you doing against it? That's the real inflection point of the hand.
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Old 10-15-2017, 04:53 AM   #25
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Re: 8/16 - AA turn decision in huge pot

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We don't care about her 3 bet range.

What's her range when she donks turn and how are you doing against it? That's the real inflection point of the hand.
I see. In that case I guess it'd be sets, AQ and KK...which puts my equity at around 55% although I don't know if that accounts for the fact that my hand seriously blocks AQ. I actually don't even know if she'd donk AQ here either.

Maybe it's realistically just sets and KK. That puts me at 40% equity.
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