Quote:
Originally Posted by DTLB
I'm not totally convinced about 3betting 88 vs a typical 8/16 raise. We're flipping at best or crushed. A lot of players here don't even raise AQ or TT. Some don't raise AK. I know 3b takes control of the hand but it still leaves us open to getting 4b which sucks.
If I knew villain was a loose raiser I'd be happy to 3b. But not so much vs an unknown. Let me know if I'm wrong...
I think calling is quite profitable from a strict expected value viewpoint of (fold = 0ev). However, I think 3 betting preflop is even more profitable vs all but the nittiest of tight nits.
Think about this:
Quote:
A lot of players here don't even raise AQ or TT. Some don't raise AK.
Well this guy
did raise. So we gotta put him on a range. There are a few different things that could be happening here:
a) he's a very tight player that only raises KK+. That's about 2% of all starting hands.
b) he's a moderately tight player that will raise JJ+, AK. That's about 5% of all starting hands, give or take a few % I think.
c) he's a standard tight tag that plays by the book preflop ranges. He raises 66+, AJo+, suited broadways, A9s, etc.
d) he's a slightly loose lag that will raise even more hands than the above.
e) he's a very loose lag that will raise even more hands that I'm not in the mood to type out.
f) he's a maniac.
Now, considering all that, let's go back to your statement:
Quote:
A lot of players here don't even raise AQ or TT. Some don't raise AK.
Do you really think that he's type (a)? If I was a betting man, and I most definitely am, I'd put the over under somewhere between (d) and (e) because remember,
this guy did raise it up. So either he's a lag that's playing a range that we do quite well against, which is quite likely, or he's a nit that only raises KK+, or any type of player in between. A quick glance at the bayes theorem notes on the back of my hand tells me that the tighter types will only pick up a raising hand between 2% and 10% of the time, while the looser types will pick up a raising hand >25%-30% of the time. Thus just the simple act of this guy raising it preflop tells me that he's more likely to be a lag than a nit. With each action, your opponents pigeon hole themselves.
Because of all that mumbo jumbo, I think it's clear that without a player pool specific read that players in this game hardly ever raise, 88 is a particularly strong hand.
ATTACK!!!!!!!!!!
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besides that I think the hand is well played postflop.