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Micro-Small Stakes Limit Discussions about micro-small stakes Texas Hold'em (all stakes up to around 15/30)

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Old 09-09-2018, 11:18 PM   #1
ChocolateMoo
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6/12 Say a little prayer for you

Haven't played in a while, so a little rusty. Oaks 6/12

History:
Villain is a dealer. Kind of a bad loose-aggro type. He's been drinking. My image is probably LAGTAG-ish; villain's been commenting that I've raised 5 hands in a row. Seems like he's trying to pick a bone with me and just wants to raise/3bet if I enter the pot.

Hand 1: Villain posts UTG+2 7-handed, I check Q8o in BB. Board runs out KQJ-K-T. I check-call 3 streets and beat J5o.

Hand 2: I open ATo UTG 7-handed, villain cold-calls in early MP. I bet flop and turn, check-call river on 722-J-6. ATo > Q9o.

Hand 3: Couple of limps, I limp 33 on the BTN, villain raises sb, all call. I fold flop, board runs out K54-A-2. Villain bet flop, check turn (turn is checked through), and bets river. Shows 43o.
----------------------------------------------

Onto the actual hand.

Preflop: I raise AJo UTG, Villain 3bets MP, BTN cc's and is all-in, blinds fold. I call, planning to get to showdown pretty lightly.

Flop: K76 (2 diamonds) Pot~10sb
I check-call. (I have no diamond).

Turn: 5 (3 diamonds) Pot~12sb
I check-call.

River: 4 (non-diamond) . Pot ~16sb
I check-call.

Question(s): Is it correct to say I need 20% equity to call-down profitably from turn? (pay 2 BB to win a final pot of 8BB)

If that's the case, seems like I fold QTs/JTs to a turn bet, call QJs with plan of folding river U/I, and get to showdown with all of my ace-highs + pairs?

Also, I forgot that another player is all-in for ~2sb + change. Can I fold a little more generously on the turn?

Equity calculations:
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
37,356 trials (Exhaustive)
board: K765
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJc31.17% 11,484316
85%68.83% 25,556316
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
818 trials (Exhaustive)
board: K7654
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJc17.97% 1438
85%82.03% 6678
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Old 09-09-2018, 11:31 PM   #2
ninefingershuffle
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Re: 6/12 Say a little prayer for you

Seems fine
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Old 09-10-2018, 10:14 AM   #3
Munga30
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Re: 6/12 Say a little prayer for you

IMR, 85% is absurd and wholly unsupported by the examples you gave because none involve a 3b.

But even if we roll with that assumption, I think a more realistic not handwaving not "you just had to be there" stove is this:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Kd7s6d5d
PLAYER_1 AsJc
PLAYER_2 85%AA-22,K,8,7,6,5,d)
30184 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity
 Equity %Wins Hi %Ties Hi %Wins Hi CountTies Hi Count 
AsJc20.5076%20.2756%0.4638%6120140 
85%AA-22,K,8,7,6,5,d)79.4924%79.2605%0.4638%23924140 


Super close on the turn under that assumption because you're oop you probably have RIO on the turn and river action. Pwning people with light showdowns is great but I think you do just fine folding this hand ott when your pf range is so strong and villain aggros back at you.

You don't get to win every hand. -- Jesse8888
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Old 09-11-2018, 12:57 AM   #4
Aaron W.
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Re: 6/12 Say a little prayer for you

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChocolateMoo View Post
Question(s): Is it correct to say I need 20% equity to call-down profitably from turn? (pay 2 BB to win a final pot of 8BB)
It's sort of correct. As you noted, there's another player that's all-in for about 2 SB = 1 BB. This means that 3 BB of the 8 BB pot you're looking at is 3-way and you're only HU for 5 BB. Here's your share of the pot:

[Equity] = 5 * [HU % equity] + 3 * [3-way % equity]

There's a nice little mathematical shortcut here, which is that your 3-way equity only goes down from the times you beat villain but lose to all-in. So [3-way % equity] is [HU % equity] - [% beat villain and lose to AI]. A little bit of algebra and you get

[Equity] = 8 * [HU % equity] - 3 * [% beat villain and lose to AI]

Now, who knows what that value is. But whatever it is, it's smaller than your % beat villain, which is already a small number because you're bluff-catching. We'll look at this again later.

It's already been noted that the 85% range is pretty optimistic in terms of what villain might be doing. It helps sometimes to do a high and low estimate to see how elastic or inelastic the numbers are. Here's a 50% range, with the tables put side-by-side for easy comparison.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
37,356 trials (Exhaustive)
board: K765
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJc31.17% 11,484 316
85%68.83% 25,556316

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
21,560 trials (Exhaustive)
board: K765
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJc33.59% 7,085316
50%66.41% 14,159316

Notice how stable things are on the turn. That's because there are a lot of junk hands floating around in that bottom 35% of his range. You're adding in a lot of Qx/Jx/Tx hands that you're beating at the same time you're adding in 7x/6x/5x hands that are beating you.

However, on the river...

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
818 trials (Exhaustive)
board: K7654
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJc17.97% 1438
85%82.03% 6678

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
480 trials (Exhaustive)
board: K7654
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsJc24.58% 1148
50%75.42% 3588

There's a pretty significant difference now. You do better against the smaller range because now all those random Qx/Jx/Tx hands have made a bunch of pairs and straights and you're now glad to see them not in the range. (Any 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or K beats you. Notice how many more bad cards there are and how many of those formerly junky hands got there.)

Back to your equity: On the turn, we might estimate your HU equity to be somewhere close to 33%*. Ignoring the all-in, you're looking pretty good. We can try to factor in the all-in. Let's estimate that he's taking 50% of your wins away from you and see what happens. 50% of 33% = 16.5%. This decreases your equity from 2.64 (33% of 8 BB) to 2.15 (33% of 8 - 16.5% of 3). That changes your % equity from 33% to 27%. But in both cases, it's above the 20% for a blind calldown.

(* Note: Munga's calculation has your equity down in the 20% range. I may be reading the range wrong, but it looks like his range is suggesting that villain would be giving up on hands with no pair/no draw. That's entirely plausible and worth considering. In two of the three hands you posted, villain had a piece of the flop. In the third case, it was a paired ragged flop. Also, none of those were 3-bet hands.)

But given that the pessimistic Munga range is borderline and the optimistic range says it's fine, it's probably fine to call down.

And (perhaps counter-intuitively) you would actually prefer his range to be slightly narrower for this particular river if he's betting everything he's got. You would much prefer his range be biased more mid-range connected stuff (like J9) than high-low combos (like Q4).
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Old 09-12-2018, 08:30 AM   #5
Bob148
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Re: 6/12 Say a little prayer for you

Quote:
Hand 2: I open ATo UTG 7-handed, villain cold-calls in early MP. I bet flop and turn, check-call river on 722-J-6. ATo > Q9o.

Hand 3: Couple of limps, I limp 33 on the BTN, villain raises sb, all call. I fold flop, board runs out K54-A-2. Villain bet flop, check turn (turn is checked through), and bets river. Shows 43o.
Vs someone that plays like this? I'm calling the turn and river.
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