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Originally Posted by Captain R
What % would you bet here? In CO's shoes, how often is AK/AQ good on the river here when UTG checks? It should be a slam dunk value bet if for some reason he didn't 3-bet the flop or raise the turn. Since CO did not, we have to discount these combos at least somewhat.
That's fine. Even if CO doesn't bet AK/AQ just a few times, we're saving money by not putting in bets while behind.
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I thought I already answered this -- CO has a 3-bet % of 32%. Obviously small sample size, but at that rate it should be 100% of his Ax hands. We don't have any other data, so we use what we have to make the best decision.
I thought we didn't get to "all Ax hands" until around 40%.
It's too much to assume that CO's 3-betting range in the worst possible position to be 3-betting is the number that you see on the display. This is like looking at a full ring game, seeing that villain has a 3-bet percentage of 20% and assuming that because villain is in UTG+2 and is 3-betting an UTG raiser that he's 3-betting 20% of his hands.
So I'm a little skeptical of reading the range in quite that way. If he's 3-betting 32% overall, I'd suspect that his CO 3-betting against UTG is in the mid 20s% and that his blind 3-betting is much higher. I could be wrong. He could be one who flats a ton from the blind. We don't know. But I think giving him the full 32% for this position is ambitious.
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I don't know where you're getting that number from.
It's just from a convenient orifice. There's no useful calculation that can arrive at any number. The basic position is that calling a raise here is in the desperate hope that villain has turned some random hand into a bluff. I don't see any hand that accidentally value-raises worse than yours.
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How often does villain have Jx vs. Ax? There are an equal number of combos if he plays every Jx and every Ax, but obviously he is far more likely to 3-bet A2-A7 than J2-J7.
This is a fair point. But I think you're assuming far too much about villain's 3-betting range here.
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Betting is pretty standard OOP river play AINEC.
I'm not going to argue strongly that my position is absolutely the best. If you think that villain 100% bets hands that are better and checks all hands that are worse, but would call (and not fold) with hands that are worse, and that you're getting raised on the river extremely rarely, bet-calling could well be best.
I think it's coming down to a more optimistic impression of what your opponent is going to do here.