Table has been pretty good as usual - the player to my right (MP in this hand) is the only player besides me who raises a significant amount of the time. BTN and BB raise every now and then but not too often - most pots are seeing 4 to 7 players seeing a flop for one bet. Also, calling at this table is more of a yes and no proposition (at least preflop and on the flop) than whether or not they're facing a raise. I know that's pretty common at these table, but this night it was more pronounced than usual - if they're going to call they're going to call, doesn't matter if it's 1, 2, or 3 bets to them.

BTN is a fish on a heater - he's been playing trash hands aggressively, making miracle hands and dragging huge pots, bluffing people off one-pair hands and showing, trying to bluff and getting looked up etc. Has a huge pile of chips.

On to the hand.

I'm on the HJ. UTG limps, UTG+2 limps, MP limps and I have K3s.

This is decision #1 - I normally like to be in a later position and/or have a better kicker when I play a suited king. But the most likely result is I'm going to see a 7-way pot for one bet, and if I do make a flush I'm likely to drag a big pot. I just have to play very carefully postflop if I flop a K. So I decide to call.

CO folds, BTN raises (dammit), SB folds, BB and limpers (includinng me ldo) call.

6 players, 6BB, Flop is A94tt giving me a nut flush draw.

BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 calls, MP folds, I raise, BTN calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

4 players, 10BB, turn is a 7 completing my nut flush.

UTG bets, UTG+2 folds.

Decision #2 - raising here would appear to be a no-brainer, but I think it's worth the risk to keep the fish in the hand. UTG probably made a flush. BTN has such a wide range he could have anything, so it's really hard for him to have a set or 2 pair, and even if he does have those he only has 4 or 10 outs to overtake me. AND, he's such a maniac that he might raise as a bluff, or he might raise a set or 2 pair. It's GIGANTICALLY PROFITABLE for me if he does raise because UTG will be trapped to call his raise, and then when I RERAISED he'll be priced in to call that.

I say the right decision is to call, keep the fish in the hand, hope he raises, and if he doesn't, bet or raise the river if the board doesn't pair, otherwise hope to get to call down cheaply.

Thoughts?

I'd call the flop. As played I'd raise the turn.

out of curiosity why wouldn't you play the free card play on the flop? There's only one villain behind us and even if he calls or reraises we have a ton of equity.

When I bet or raise in 4+ way pots, my range is (value).

Let's talk about the profitability:

6 players for 12 small bets. theres a bet a call and a fold with players behind. 14:1 to me with 30+% equity seems very profitable. That's like 500% return on investment, with other players behind which only add to that. So we're talking around 5 or 6 small bets of profit for one invested.

Instead you raised and ended up 4 handed for 2/20 small bets invetsed. Getting 30+% back from the pot is about 200% return on invetsment, and you blocked others from padding your draw.

I'd have raised here, too. Your flush draw comes in about 1/3 of the time, and so you've got equity with two players in the pot already. But a flop raise here is really about shutting out other players to make them fold their equity in a big pot.

But calling isn't a terrible play. With only two players in the pot ahead of you and players still to act behind, it's not unreasonable to try to keep them in (given that you're drawing to the nut flush). I suspect it's less profitable than raising, but it's not as clear as if BB bet and it was called all the way to you (4 players already in the pot).

There was a discussion a long time ago about ROI and leveraging your money, but in limit hold'em it doesn't really play that strongly. The ultimate goal is to make the most profitable decision, not the decision that has the highest ROI.

Does it make a difference that my read on the table was, at least preflop and on the flop, calling was more of a yes/no than a "am I facing 1 bet or 2" thing? I felt like BTN and BB were both the type of player that would call for 8 with nearly 100% of the range they'd call for 4, especially with the pot already being big.

I didn't mean to imply that roi is the most important part of the equation. I thought that it was clear that 1 small bet * 500% is better than 2 small bets * 200%.

You always want to measure this relative to the possible and desired outcomes.

If you're raising for value on the basis of draw equity, more players is better and you stand to gain by having them call two instead of one.

If you're raising for a free card, you're trying to get button to fold, and this doesn't help that.

And I'm not saying that this must be a binary conclusion. You can raise because good things happen all around (if players fold they give up equity, and if they call they contribute to your equity advantage). But your stated reason in an earlier post was "free card." If you believe what you just said about the other two players, then "free card" is not a good reason to raise.

The pot is big enough already that anyone who has a reasonable piece of the flop is sticking around for two bets as well as one. There are already enough players committing to see a turn to make a raise profitable.

However, raising to kill off dead money doesn't make sense when we're drawing to the nuts. Killing off dead money is something the made hand wants to do, to earn more equity right away, to buy outs, and so on.

I think the raise here is the right play, given the table dynamic of "yes/no" continuing that the OP describes.

This is oversimplified and mostly wrong. You would be glad if KQ folded this flop and you get a K on the turn. You also wouldn't mind K9 folding.

Killing off dead money is something you want to do if you have some piece of the equity that they're giving up. It doesn't matter whether your draw is to the nuts or to something weaker. All you care about is your share of the money they're forfeiting. (Edit: And you care about how much it costs to get them to fold. If they give up only a tiny bit of equity to you and the pot isn't large, it may not be worth trying to push them out.)

Exactly. If someone has an ace, they aren’t golfing.

I fold this pre-