Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W.
Suppose you're right that he has exactly KK and QQ here. After the river card, what is the probability that he has each hand? There are 6 combos of KK and 3 combos of QQ. So even *IF* you were right that he's got that exact hand range, it's still twice as likely that you're ahead than behind.
I don't understand why you don't stick to brilliant advice like this quoted bit and end up diluting it with all sorts of other unnecessarily inflammatory nonsense.
As someone - maybe even whoever you were arguing with - pointed out, the next six and a half million posts are a minor argument about three hands.
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DalTXColtsFan: the quoted part is the crux of your problem. The range you put your opponents on is too narrow, but even if it were that narrow, you're overestimating the negative effect. The Q does pull QQ ahead of you but it halves the probability QQ exists. If you're willing to b/f (which you should be), you only need to beat 50% of the combos that continue. You will need 2/3 if you plan to b/c (because you lose two when behind and win one when ahead). So list out all the hands that will call or raise, and count how many you will beat.