4 limpers, SB folds, I'm in the BB with 73o and I check.

5sb. Flop comes AJ7r. I check, first limper bets, 2 callers. I'm only getting 8 to 1 on a call and I need 9 to 1 immediate odds to catch my 5 outs, but I'm okay making a loose flop peel closing the action.

4.5bb. Turn is a 9 putting a twoflush on the board. I check, first limper bets, both limpers call.

I'm only getting 7.5 to 1 on a call, but I have to think that the first limper will bet the river and then not fold if I raise, and there's a chance at least one of the limpers calls the first limper, he'll say "pot's too big to fold" and I'll gain some more bets.

If I hit one of my 7s I can feel fairly confident it's the best hand, but what if I hit one of my 3s? Should I be worried about RIO in that case? How worried should I be about the 7 and 3 that could complete a backdoor flush for someone?

And how confident should I be that a checkraise on the river will be successful?

Hope the questions made sense
DTXCF

The flop call is thin and I think I would fold. I think hands like this are trouble. You could hit a 7 and lose to a better 7. You could hit the 3 and then get counterfitted on the river.

Regarding calling on the turn....you have a guy continuing to bet into a crowd on a somewhat coordinated board. You could be drawing close to dead already. This ia a super easy fold.

It does you no good if you are gonna make a thin call on the flop with the rationalization of good imlplied odds if you're gonna make a much thinner call on the turn.

Fold flop. With this flop you're only happy about a 7. It's too thin.

Call flop, fold turn. And it’s 42:5 odds on flop, or about 8.5:1 on the flop to hit a 5-outer. On the turn it’s quite close to 8:1.

On the turn you’re not getting odds, some of them are dirty, and the 9 is a bad card because it hits opponent’s ranges.

Plus one

Agree, though I don't think the EV or calling or folding flop is going to be very different.

I'm amused that the advice is the same, but the perspective on this card (which is 40% of your outs) is kind of the opposite of each other.

I'm happy with two pair on the turn. I see no reason not to be. It's not like the 3 completes any draws or is likely to hit other hands.

This isn't no limit. When someone bets the turn into a crowd, there's no reason to think he needs to have two pair or better. I think you can be fairly confident in all of your outs. Maybe not 100% (AJ9 does hit other two pairs more than average), but since you're only facing a single bet and not a raise, you don't have a strong reason to significantly devalue your draw.

---

When it's close and I'm closing the action on the flop, I call. So for that reason alone, I'm calling here. But I think it's a little better than "close" and that with reasonable implied odds and close to having immediate odds, this should be a pretty standard call.

I fold the turn. The price is no longer right.

I'm looking at this hand within the context that it is a 4/8 limit game. You have people limping with much bigger hands and usually betting into a crowd twice with something pretty strong. It's not "no limit" but it's close.

I'm not gonna argue with anyone who wants to call the flop. It may be the right play. I'd feel way better calling in a 20/40 game....The ranges are wider, you'll run into way less big hands, and you can confidently get in a turn CR when you improve without the fear of being crushed when the villian bets the turn again.

I think that strictly speaking, you have a profitable drawing hand on the flop facing that particular action, but then after you miss it's time to fold on the turn.

I think your fear is over-weighted. Yes, you would see more hands that hurt you, but you see more hands of *ALL* types. It's worth taking the time to construct two hand ranges. Make one that you would put in a 20/40 game and one that you would put in a 4/8 game. And for each one, determine what percent of hands share the 7 with you (remembering to include card-removal).

As long as the range is reasonably constructed, I'm doubtful that either one will have a particularly significant part of their range being other 7x hands. And so it's not something to be fearful of.

This is definitely not "close" to NL. It's a 4/8 donkfest. The average hand is much weaker than in the higher level games*. This makes strong hands more valuable. (If you go high enough, the average hand strength starts to go down again as bluffing frequencies and calldown ranges increase... but 4/8 to 20/40 isn't big enough to expect that jump.)

This looks like straight up MUBS. This fear is probably not rationally supportable. How much (proportional to the overall ranges) is "way less" in terms of "big hands" you might run into? Now consider how many *other* crap hands you'll run into and be able to profit off of.

Here's another way to pose the challenge. Suppose you *KNEW* you were going to turn trips. What do you think the EV is for calling on the flop in 4/8 and in 20/40? Give a solid number. Now look at that number and look at how it impacts the EV of a call when you don't know if you'll turn trips.

By the time you go through all of this work, I think you'll find that you'll have to make rather unusual assumptions for there to be such a significant change in the EV that one is an easy call and the other isn't. I expect the EV (in BBs) to be approximately the same.

(Honestly, I think the EV at lower levels is *HIGHER* than at the higher levels simply because of the extra volume of dead money you'll get in the pot. I could be wrong. I would be very surprised if I were so wrong that this isn't a clear call in either type of game.)

/thread