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Originally Posted by mongidig
I'm looking at this hand within the context that it is a 4/8 limit game. You have people limping with much bigger hands and usually betting into a crowd twice with something pretty strong. It's not "no limit" but it's close.
I think your fear is over-weighted. Yes, you would see more hands that hurt you, but you see more hands of *ALL* types. It's worth taking the time to construct two hand ranges. Make one that you would put in a 20/40 game and one that you would put in a 4/8 game. And for each one, determine what percent of hands share the 7 with you (remembering to include card-removal).
As long as the range is reasonably constructed, I'm doubtful that either one will have a particularly significant part of their range being other 7x hands. And so it's not something to be fearful of.
This is definitely not "close" to NL. It's a 4/8 donkfest. The average hand is much weaker than in the higher level games*. This makes strong hands more valuable. (If you go high enough, the average hand strength starts to go down again as bluffing frequencies and calldown ranges increase... but 4/8 to 20/40 isn't big enough to expect that jump.)
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I'm not gonna argue with anyone who wants to call the flop. It may be the right play. I'd feel way better calling in a 20/40 game....The ranges are wider, you'll run into way less big hands, and you can confidently get in a turn CR when you improve without the fear of being crushed when the villian bets the turn again.
This looks like straight up MUBS. This fear is probably not rationally supportable. How much (proportional to the overall ranges) is "way less" in terms of "big hands" you might run into? Now consider how many *other* crap hands you'll run into and be able to profit off of.
Here's another way to pose the challenge. Suppose you *KNEW* you were going to turn trips. What do you think the EV is for calling on the flop in 4/8 and in 20/40? Give a solid number. Now look at that number and look at how it impacts the EV of a call when you don't know if you'll turn trips.
By the time you go through all of this work, I think you'll find that you'll have to make rather unusual assumptions for there to be such a significant change in the EV that one is an easy call and the other isn't. I expect the EV (in BBs) to be approximately the same.
(Honestly, I think the EV at lower levels is *HIGHER* than at the higher levels simply because of the extra volume of dead money you'll get in the pot. I could be wrong. I would be very surprised if I were so wrong that this isn't a clear call in either type of game.)