10/20 9 players

SB in this hand is an asian woman who loves to play poker, but is horrible at it. she makes a lot of mistakes preflop, and plays poorly postflop. she likes to donk draws, top pair, over pairs, and sometimes Ahi.

preflop: folds to hero in the HJ with 99 hero raises, folds to SB who cc's, BB calls.

flop [5.5SB]: 436 (3 players)
SB donks, BB folds, hero calls.

turn [3.75BB]: J (hu)
SB bets, hero raises, SB calls

river [7.75BB]: Q (hu)
SB checks, hero...?

i didn't raise the flop because i'm waiting for the turn to raise my value hands in hu pots when in position. on the river i can bet for value, and expect to get called vs. her top pair hands, 77, 88, Ahi, or i can check it back and showdown. what do you think?

just raise the flop. there is risk of her not leading scary turns with her wide flop donking range. this villain and your hand combined with the board, imo it's fpsy to wait for the turn just for the sake of it.

not betting the river seems like a weird thought

I still raise the flop, but if this is how you want to play, okay. I'd bet the river and expect tons of calls from worse hands because this does not sound like the type of player to fold any pair.

*g*

If you're raising the turn for value, why wouldn't you bet the river for value?

you would.

*Grunch*

I agree with the PF raise, but I would have raised the flop. You've shown strength PF, and based on your description of this opponent, I think we're ahead of most of her range at this point. If she has the flush draw, her bet and your flop call gives her 6.5:1 odds for her 4:1 draw. If you raise the flop, now she's getting 7.5:2 = 3.75:1, so you can really make her pay for that draw. Against the rest of her range, for example 2 overcards bigger than your 9s or 4x, she has 5-6 outs to beat you, so your raise punishes those hands even more.

On the turn I still raise since J appears to be a blank. On the river, I think it might be close, but I would want to throw in another bet here. At game speed though, I probably just check behind on the river. I am working on my own leaks for river value bets, so I might be way off.

nh bet river

fyp

This river is a brick 90% of the time. Sometimes she has a random flush or Qx hand, but if your hand was worth a turn raise (I like your line of waiting til the turn) this river really changes nothing.

If she was on a diamond flush draw or some kind of straight draw then she is not calling the river. If she has a pair, she will probably call. Is she likely to bluff raise the river? Can you safely fold to a check/raise? Would she donk the river with most hands that beats you?

I don't think she has you beat here very often. I would expect she would call with a small pair more often than she has you beat, so I think this is a river value bet.

river is a b/f

b/f

no.

yes.

not necessarily.

Grunch

OTF I would raise because we are probably ahead there and waiting to raise is tricky because she might improve and you'd be getting your money in bad.

OTR when she's strong she donks? She checks so this is an indicator that she still hasn't improved? I definitely see what you're getting at. Worse is probably gonna fold and better is probably gonna call.

I think with the combination of the two over cards (of which she called your raise on one of them like it's nothing) and the fd coming in I think it tips me towards just checking back and taking another note of her donking range, her turn ccing range and her river checking range.

Or on the other side if she doesn't improve we become a bigger favorite and get to put in a bigger raise. We don't have to raise bad turn cards.

would you have raised with an overcard falling on a later street like op did or play it wawb when the overcards fall?

I like ops line with AA KK mb QQ JJ - I take this line with 2p or a set all day long - I just thought that with 88-TT this is a little vulnerable that's all yes?

Sure, the overcard is a relative brick. The villain donked the flop, which gives us a lot of info. Likely that she has a small pair, or A high, or maybe even a strong hand. But we know that the J isn't going to hit a lot of those hands. It's just very innocuous.

I'd raise any overcard except an A in this situation, given the read provided in the OP.

Op, what are your thoughts and concerns with v betting the river?

Like others I don't see the close decision here. Passive lady probably sees you betting and raising all the time,taking unorthodox lines (to her), and thinks you are bluffing way more than you are. She came this far, I think it is reasonable to expect her to throw in her 20 with flopped pair (probably with draw combo).

this was just one of those times where you're running bad and start to question everything you do. i put this hand in my phone and forgot about it. a week or two later i was bored so i posted it. i don't really have any concerns with the vbet on the river and think i played the hand fine.

*G*

I probably just raise the flop, especially with a pair as vulnerable as 99. If it were JJ+, I'd maybe be a little more on-board with slowplaying. Besides, is it not possible that flop is only opportunity to get value from king-high/queen-high type trash? Or is she highly committed to seeing the river regardless.

As played.....I kinda want to bet the river ('cause sounds like she'd have donked if river helped her, no?), especially if she's a SD-monkey. Though, if she's ever capable of bluff-raising a scarecard on river I don't mind checking back (since I don't think we can b/c here). I could be talked into either, tbh.

Then I'll squarely place myself in the b/f camp, too.