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Old 08-31-2019, 11:53 AM   #1
NittyOldMan1
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Is that the one I wanted?

full ring, everyone is real loose and bad

i've bet folded the turn twice in the last two orbits

5 limpers, sb completes, i raise QhTh in the big blind, everyone calls


flop J93 two clubs one heart. i bet, one caller, second limper raises, two cold calls, I three bet. first caller calls, raiser caps, one cold caller calls (the other folds?), i call.

turn T spade, checked around

river T club. i?
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Old 08-31-2019, 01:12 PM   #2
asmitty
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

What's your thinking behind the flop 3bet? Not sure you have enough equity to jam here (although the BDFD may swing it upward enough).

As played the river is super gross and I would probably check/call.
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Old 08-31-2019, 02:29 PM   #3
NittyOldMan1
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

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Originally Posted by asmitty View Post
What's your thinking behind the flop 3bet? Not sure you have enough equity to jam here (although the BDFD may swing it upward enough).
pure equity i thought with the BDFD, OESD, and overcard. i might be wrong with the flush draw on board though.
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Old 08-31-2019, 06:13 PM   #4
PrGarland
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

I am curious to the thinking to betting out on this flop. Your OESD and BDFD + overcard has tons of value and the pot is big. The board is pretty coordinated for lots of plausible hands. Would trying for a checkraise by letting the aggressive pre-flop better have a crack at the flop help protect your hand?
Or would waiting until the larger turn bet be even more effective? **I am pretty sure I know enough from Miller to try to be aggressive in big pots, and not enough to implement it correctly often.

Betting out first here for the small bet probably does nothing to thin the field but if you were hoping to make the pot huge---well done.

As played, the river sucks--but doesn't suck enough not to call down.
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:48 PM   #5
NittyOldMan1
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

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Originally Posted by PrGarland View Post
I am curious to the thinking to betting out on this flop. Your OESD and BDFD + overcard has tons of value and the pot is big. The board is pretty coordinated for lots of plausible hands. Would trying for a checkraise by letting the aggressive pre-flop better have a crack at the flop help protect your hand?
Or would waiting until the larger turn bet be even more effective? **I am pretty sure I know enough from Miller to try to be aggressive in big pots, and not enough to implement it correctly often.

Betting out first here for the small bet probably does nothing to thin the field but if you were hoping to make the pot huge---well done.

As played, the river sucks--but doesn't suck enough not to call down.
nothing i do on the flop will protect my hand in this game. i like the flop check raise plan, but for pure value only.
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Old 08-31-2019, 10:32 PM   #6
checkraisdraw
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PrGarland View Post
I am curious to the thinking to betting out on this flop. Your OESD and BDFD + overcard has tons of value and the pot is big. The board is pretty coordinated for lots of plausible hands. Would trying for a checkraise by letting the aggressive pre-flop better have a crack at the flop help protect your hand?
Or would waiting until the larger turn bet be even more effective? **I am pretty sure I know enough from Miller to try to be aggressive in big pots, and not enough to implement it correctly often.

Betting out first here for the small bet probably does nothing to thin the field but if you were hoping to make the pot huge---well done.

As played, the river sucks--but doesn't suck enough not to call down.
His q high doesn’t need protection, and any hand you are trying to fold out with a check raise is not going to fold out.
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Old 09-01-2019, 10:15 AM   #7
Aaron W.
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PrGarland View Post
Would trying for a checkraise by letting the aggressive pre-flop better have a crack at the flop help protect your hand?
Quote:
Originally Posted by NittyOldMan1 View Post
5 limpers, sb completes, i raise QhTh in the big blind, everyone calls
Check the action again.
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Old 09-01-2019, 10:21 AM   #8
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NittyOldMan1 View Post
5 limpers, sb completes, i raise QhTh in the big blind, everyone calls


flop J93 two clubs one heart. i bet, one caller, second limper raises, two cold calls, I three bet. first caller calls, raiser caps, one cold caller calls (the other folds?), i call.

turn T spade, checked around

river T club. i?
I'm fine with not 3-betting this flop. I'm not sure you have equity because the flush draw taints your outs. I would also consider the possibility of check-raising the turn if you hit your straight as an increase of value. But I don't think 3-betting the flop is a huge error.

I go ahead and bet-call the river. Capper could have jammed the flop with a flush draw, but he also could have Jx that got cold feet on the turn because of the connected board. Trip Ts is strong enough to not hate paying two bets on the river.
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Old 09-03-2019, 06:34 PM   #9
Dead.money.is.back
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NittyOldMan1 View Post
full ring, everyone is real loose and bad

i've bet folded the turn twice in the last two orbits

5 limpers, sb completes, i raise QhTh in the big blind, everyone calls


flop J93 two clubs one heart. i bet, one caller, second limper raises, two cold calls, I three bet. first caller calls, raiser caps, one cold caller calls (the other folds?), i call.

turn T spade, checked around

river T club. i?
FOLD! lmao. YEa Yea, you can make a crying call if you want to but Highly probable that someone has flush...they didnt lead out because they are afraid of boat
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Old 09-03-2019, 07:59 PM   #10
NittyOldMan1
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

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Originally Posted by Dead.money.is.back View Post
FOLD! lmao. YEa Yea, you can make a crying call if you want to but Highly probable that someone has flush...they didnt lead out because they are afraid of boat
im first to act on the river, im not open folding.
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Old 09-10-2019, 01:15 AM   #11
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

Check-call seems fine on this river, but I'd add to the chorus of not liking the flop 3-bet. Our equity just isn't big enough to jam here.
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Old 09-12-2019, 10:11 AM   #12
AceHighIsGood
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

Personally I'm jamming this flop too. I'll jam any quality draw on the flop -- even if I take slightly (only slightly!) the worst of it on the additional bets.

My reasoning:

1. It slightly increases my payout when I hit my draw -- people don't like to fold on the end in huge pots if they have anything to show down (which is not wrong of them). They may even bet into you if they didn't "put you on the draw". That at least somewhat makes up for the fractional small bets you lose from the flop bets.

2. I can jam my monsters and I get paid off huge. Even loose/bad players notice you jamming your draws. They just think you are crazy and will pay you off (even though you fold most of the time preflop -- this overrides that)

Last edited by AceHighIsGood; 09-12-2019 at 10:23 AM.
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Old 09-12-2019, 03:31 PM   #13
checkraisdraw
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

Totally agree on that last part. If you're a mostly tight player but can create a loose flop image, then you get paid off, reraised, and bet into on the turn.
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Old 09-12-2019, 11:24 PM   #14
Aaron W.
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

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Originally Posted by AceHighIsGood View Post
1. It slightly increases my payout when I hit my draw -- people don't like to fold on the end in huge pots if they have anything to show down (which is not wrong of them). They may even bet into you if they didn't "put you on the draw". That at least somewhat makes up for the fractional small bets you lose from the flop bets.
It's not immediately clear to me that the increase in payout on the end offsets the "small fractional bets" you lose from the flop bets. It's difficult to measure because you're trying to estimate the bets for which someone on the end will fold instead of calling. In this case, even without you 3-betting the flop, the pot on the end is expected to be big, so it's not clear to me that making it extra-big will tip the scale for anyone. (It's also worth noting that you might get yourself sucked into calling extra on the end because of the size of the pot when you back into some hand that wasn't your primary draw.)

Also, at the low stakes I'm far less worried about players who fold too often on the river. And if I were, there are much better places where you can squeeze extra value.

Quote:
2. I can jam my monsters and I get paid off huge. Even loose/bad players notice you jamming your draws. They just think you are crazy and will pay you off (even though you fold most of the time preflop -- this overrides that)
One of the challenges with this is that the frequency with which you flop draws far exceeds the number of monsters you will have. And it's not clear to me that you would need to jam all your draws in order to get the perceived benefit. And you're also foregoing other ways to achieve extra value on the big streets when you hit your draw. I think it's fair to say that not jamming the flop will create some opportunities to do that.

I would argue that there are certainly good times to jam draws. I'm just not sure that it's actually profitable to jam all your draws.
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Old 09-13-2019, 01:19 AM   #15
AceHighIsGood
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

I'm not talking about situations where I'm clearly taking the worst of it. I'm talking about borderline cases were I'm not sure. This is one of those cases. OP is open ended to the nuts with an overcard, with 4 opponents, with a possible flush draw out there. It seems likely that at least one of his opponents has a flush draw but that's not 100% certain.

OP probably wins 20% of the time. If not, it's close. 6 outs with 2 cards to come is 24.1%. The flush draw redraw kills it 19.5% of the time. So he makes the nuts 19.4% of the time. Sometimes he wins without making the nuts. Sometimes there is no flush draw out there; sometimes runner-runner trips are good; sometimes just a queen is good. Jamming here is an easy decision IMO. He is either getting the best of it or very slightly the worst of it.
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Old 09-13-2019, 10:48 AM   #16
Aaron W.
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

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Originally Posted by AceHighIsGood View Post
I'm not talking about situations where I'm clearly taking the worst of it. I'm talking about borderline cases were I'm not sure. This is one of those cases. OP is open ended to the nuts with an overcard, with 4 opponents, with a possible flush draw out there. It seems likely that at least one of his opponents has a flush draw but that's not 100% certain.

OP probably wins 20% of the time. If not, it's close. 6 outs with 2 cards to come is 24.1%. The flush draw redraw kills it 19.5% of the time. So he makes the nuts 19.4% of the time. Sometimes he wins without making the nuts. Sometimes there is no flush draw out there; sometimes runner-runner trips are good; sometimes just a queen is good. Jamming here is an easy decision IMO. He is either getting the best of it or very slightly the worst of it.
I don't disagree with your general ideas, but I'm not confident the analysis is sound. And to be clear, I'm not saying that it's somehow obviously losing money to jam borderline situations. What I'm claiming is that not jamming may be more profitable, and not jamming is worth doing sometimes in borderline situations.

1) Drawing to a straight against a flush draw does decrease the size of your win on average because you usually lose more when the flush is out there. So you may be underestimating the downside which is leading you to overestimate your overall EV.

2) Your analysis doesn't take your relative position into account. A turn check-raise (for example) is a big win if you've got good relative position and a reliably aggressive opponent giving action on the flop.

3) Your analysis doesn't take your absolute position into account. This is kind of an ever-present aspect of poker, but I think you shouldn't negate the value of relative position. In position, I'm less inclined to jam small edges because of the opportunity to raise on a big street.

So I think there's a lot more going on that your analysis misses, and that you may not be maximizing your EV by taking that incomplete analysis to the table with you. The essence of your claim is that because it's roughly neutral EV in terms of equity, it doesn't matter what you do. My position is that there are future streets of poker to play, and you should take that into account as well.
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Old Yesterday, 12:07 PM   #17
AceHighIsGood
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

These are fair points, but I'm not sure that they apply here.

1. It's true that I'll lose some extra bets when I make my straight and lose to a flush, but I don't think that affects the profitability of raising the flop. I'm losing those bets anyway in that case.

2. In this case the relative position is more or less irrelevant. Of course if the better was directly to my left I'd checkraise but in this case there are players in between on both sides.

3. Absolute position will sometimes cost me an extra bet on the river, but that's true regardless of how we play the flop.

Basically, I think that your points are very relevant to the implied odds on future streets, but I don't think that capping vs calling the flop affects those implied odds in this case (the pot will be too big to fold a straight no matter what we do on the flop)

Also, since we raised out of the blinds we have a very well disguised hand here. Opponents may well put us on a big set or overpair, and jamming fits into that misread. That can gain bets on future streets.

Again, one of the main reasons that I like jamming here is that it keeps opponents off balance. Your play with a draw looks an awful lot like your play with top set. It's not just for this hand -- "maniac" is a profitable image in a loose game where opponents don't really know how to deal with aggression. I generally see players get scared and revert to being passive calling stations (even in small pots where they are losing money by calling, or in spots where they really need to bet their hand) or they decide that they aren't going to be pushed around and to try to play back at you, but because they aren't that good, they do it in really bad spots.

In a tough game it's different. But I try not to play in those.
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Old Yesterday, 01:45 PM   #18
Aaron W.
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Re: Is that the one I wanted?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AceHighIsGood View Post
1. It's true that I'll lose some extra bets when I make my straight and lose to a flush, but I don't think that affects the profitability of raising the flop. I'm losing those bets anyway in that case.
Maybe. One issue I see is how this plays out on the turn. Let's say that you 3-bet the flop and it's not capped. The turn comes T as it did here. I would generally think that

1) If you had the lead on the flop, you're leading the turn.
2) If you did not have the lead on this flop, you're not leading the turn.

(Some people also don't have the discipline to check the turn when it bricks, though I don't know whether that particular error applies to you.)

So I think that jamming the flop leads to more times you lead the turn with weaker holdings. I tend to think that this is setting up for slightly more errors of putting in bets while behind. (Imagine a player in late position just calling the 3-bet to raise the turn.)

Quote:
2. In this case the relative position is more or less irrelevant. Of course if the better was directly to my left I'd checkraise but in this case there are players in between on both sides.

3. Absolute position will sometimes cost me an extra bet on the river, but that's true regardless of how we play the flop.
In this case, I agree. Relative position is a wash, and you're out of position, which can indicate higher levels of aggression to offset the positional disadvantage.

Quote:
Also, since we raised out of the blinds we have a very well disguised hand here. Opponents may well put us on a big set or overpair, and jamming fits into that misread. That can gain bets on future streets.

Again, one of the main reasons that I like jamming here is that it keeps opponents off balance. Your play with a draw looks an awful lot like your play with top set. It's not just for this hand -- "maniac" is a profitable image in a loose game where opponents don't really know how to deal with aggression. I generally see players get scared and revert to being passive calling stations (even in small pots where they are losing money by calling, or in spots where they really need to bet their hand) or they decide that they aren't going to be pushed around and to try to play back at you, but because they aren't that good, they do it in really bad spots.
Balance for you is good, and your balance creates those situations where your opponents are off balance.

However, I'm looking at this statement:

Quote:
I'll jam any quality draw on the flop -- even if I take slightly (only slightly!) the worst of it on the additional bets.
If this is true, you're probably not actually balanced. There are far more ways to flop a draw than there are to flop a monster. So if you're jamming everything that's close, you're likely jamming way more often than you "should" to be balanced. But it's interesting exercise to look at different flop textures from different positions and think about that.

(Though in this case, I think it's close. Your hand range is so strong raising from BB that you don't have too many drawing hands to begin with. The effect is much stronger when you have a wide range, such as in later position or if you had just checked preflop. You say your play looks like top set, but presumably you're going to 3-bet a hand like AA or maybe as weak as QJs? Maybe one way to gauge this is to think about what hands you would bet-call here. If there aren't many, maybe your whole outlook is too aggro? There's a lot to contemplate here.)
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