Quote:
Originally Posted by cooleye
Ok, its been a few years, so bear with me...
Isn't it equally optimistic to assume that all of our 3 opponents must have some combination of a 9, medium PP, or a back door straight/flush draw?
I'm not sure how to count combos of hands that contain one J, one 10, one spade, one 9, or a medium PP VS. combos of a Q, J/10, or 2 spades, but I'm guessing that the second group isn't small enough to value our hand at the 3 outs I want to call the 16 to 1 immediate. Especially considering how vulnerable our hand is on the river. (RIO?)
If you mean specifically that range, then yes.
However, there are lots more combinations of things that we're doing okay against (with respect to number of outs) than there are combinations of things where we're not. You've really got to force it to bring yourself down to below 3 outs. To get an "exact" number of outs, you would have to go through a hand range exercise or do a quick simulation.
But to do this off-the-cuff:
The biggest concern is the frequency with which someone has a Q. In that case, we basically have zero outs and that's a bad situation to be in. It's definitely possible. But a single bet and callers isn't enough to make me believe it's so. Let's just say this is the case 25% of the time.
Against other ranges, at best we have 6 outs (all pair outs), though we sometimes have only 4 outs (if the flush draw is out there), and occasionally 2-3 outs (against nightmare scenarios). A hand waving number would be like 4.5 outs, which is taking quite a strong reduction for reverse implied odds.
So if there's something like a 25% chance of having 0 outs and a 75% chance of having 4.5 outs, then we would have something like 3.3 outs. And we still have odds to call.