One of the best sushi restaurants I have been to is Sushi Ten in Tucson.

I used to ramble about the latest awesome TV series I was watching in the SSSH forum, so I will do so here now that it has been absorbed.

The Man in the High Castle - I watched both seasons and it is simply amazing. Rufus Sewell absolutely kills it as John Smith. It is still nearly impossible to decide whether he is a good guy or a bad guy despite the fact that he is a manipulative, homicidal Nazi. I also love how Sewell brings old Hollywood back to life in the golden age of television dramas. Get this man an Emmy already imo! The show can be slow at times, but it almost always pays off with a climax to the mini-storylines that completely blows my mind.

Black Mirror - I did finish all of the episodes and absolutely loved them. The season 3 finale was a masterpiece imo. I highly recommend watching The Birds by Hitchcock himself before watching the finale for maximum enjoyment. But everyone loves Black Mirror, so not much more to say on this one.

Sherlock - Season 4 started off a bit slow, but the finale was possibly the best episode of the entire show. I can't say much without potentially spoiling things for those who haven't seen it, but suffice it to say that that the finale introduces a character who may be even more fascinating and deranged than Sherlock himself.

Fargo - Season 3 is off to an amazing start after 3 episodes and once again seems to be going in a completely different direction from the previous season. The third episode was godly imo and serves as a reminder to be extremely cautious about who we get close to in the poker world even though the episode had nothing to do with poker.

Westworld - This show seems very good to me after 5 episodes, but I can't help but feel that those of us who have ever been addicted to MMORPGs may find it unintentionally cliched. It feels like a grind so far, but I do think it has potential to pay off big time if what I have seen so far is setting up an epic climax or 2.

Oz - It has been said that this is the show that initiated the golden age of TV drama that we have been enjoying for the past decade. After years of hesitation, I finally forced myself to watch it. As expected, it is absolutely brutal and terrifying in about every possible way. You know that empty, depressed, sick feeling you get after you witness something horrific IRL? Oz pretty much gave me 60 hours of that feeling and tbh it bled over into the rest of my day until I was finished. There will be at least one character who is your worst nightmare. There will be another (or the same guy?) who embodies the worst aspects of your personality. Oz is nothing short of hell on earth, and it does way too good of a job of forcing the viewer to live in this hell. When a main character is tortured and raped, it feels just a little bit too much like you are being tortured and raped in a world full of lose-lose scenarios at the highest possible stakes. I actually don't recommend watching this show. I will be having nightmares about it for years.

Also, thank you Crazy Lond and BBB for the WPN stud 8 reviews! It certainly sounds like a fun way to break up the monotony of the third trimester abortion known as Ignition even if the rake is too high and the the stakes too low to make much money.

+1 to Black Mirror and Sherlock

I don't usually like watching things until the series is finished, but both of those are have standaloneish episodes so I don't feel pot committed.

Sorry it didn't work out for you but it was nice to chat for a few minutes. And I did tell you it was way more fun than the FW 20 game. I got buried in that 50 game despite having the two worst players in the game directly to my right, took awhile before variance normalized everything, and it was hard to leave the table while they both still had $$$. Maybe we'll have that whisky in Vegas this summer!

Black Hawk Nuts! Thought you played CP?

Maybe 4-5 months ago people in the 30 game started calling K8 "Black Hawk Nuts", I just showed up one Friday and everyone was using that expression, not sure which donkey cracked someone's big hand with that. Now it's part of the culture.

Caught a very little bit of LATB tonight which was 20/40 limit and the host (I think it was avoidthe9to5?) said if you're a pro you will have a 300 bb downswing twice a year.

Considering I'm not that good and don't play nearly enough hours to equate to what a pro would play, I find this very discouraging.

Man In The High Castle has been very enjoyable, though I thought the love triangle aspect was the weakest part of the show and was glad they moved away from it in s2.

Yeah I play at CP. Last weekend a good reg and I were discussing favorite non-premium hands and I mentioned K8s. Turns out he was just in black hawk and noticed that K8s was being played at an abnormally high frequency and shown down with great gusto, so he asked a local about it and learned that it was the black hawk nuts.

This couldn't possibly be true, could it?

Which part, that 9to5 is host or 300 bb downswing?

That would really surorise me as well and I'd think couldn't possibly be true for 20-40 (but it would also much harder to do in AZ than LA where the pros are likely much better and the rake is much lower).

But I get told I run bette than anyone in the history of poker like 6x a day (not saying it's not true).

But if a good player had two of these a year I wouldn't blink an eye at it.

This was an exciting one - limp and something like 15 bets HU PF. Flop comes monotone but unfortunately no four flush comes in. The guy w/o the flush draw looked pretty nervous. Swear I saw the same thing once like 10 years ago.

I've had multiple 300 bet downswings live if I recall correctly. Last year my 20/40 WR was $1.70 / hour (ship it).

Of course, you can't have the bad without the good, and thus far in 2017, I'm running at a totally sustainable 3.12 BB/hour at 20/40.

how many hours did you lose though?

Jdr speaks the truth. One of the things that never ceases to amaze me is the number of otherwise mathematically literate poker players I have talked to who simply have no idea how epic the downswings can be or how long they can last. It is, of course true that the higher your winrate the less likely, less frequent, and typically less prolonged the downswings are going to be. But even the top players (and jdr definitely is one) can still have gigantic, long-lasting downswings in games that they crush long-term. Look at one of those standard deviation graphs and look where the bottom of that upward sloping cone sits.

It's been mentioned on here a few times about the 20/40 session where I managed to lose a college kid car in one epic runbad session .

It kind of depends on how you define everything.

Purely theoretically, +1 BB/hr WR, 10 BB/hr SD player will face a -300 BB downswing as a -3.5 SD event, meaning once in every 3,800 hours, you will at some point be -300 BB from where you currently are. Note the slide itself can last a long time and that number includes roller coaster stretches like -100, +50, -100, +50, -100, +50, -100, +50, -100.

In practice, winrates aren't independent, and often you have covariance when you play worse when losing.

Also if you raise your SD and lower your winrate it goes downhill very quickly. Like at 0.75 BB/hr WR and 12 BB/hr SD, -300 is now a -2.5 SD event which dramatically raises the probability of it happening (1 in 160 rather than 1 in 3,800).

For a recreational player who puts in like 100 hours a year, you can go your entire life without seeing a -3.5 SD event. This is why for pros the risk management needs to be way way stricter than for an equally skilled recreational player. In all the stats I post I use z = 2 but really pros need to use at least z = 3 because they will hit 1 in 1000 scenarios twice a year.

Just for comparison, a -500 BB stretch is -4.5 SD (1 in 260k) for the first player and -3.2 (1 in 1600) for the second. And -1000 BB is -6.3 (1 in 7.9 billion) and -4.6 (1 in 400k).

ermagerd.

That's several hours, yeah. Couple more than 3.50 for sure

I know downswings that big can happen; I have had one before. Expecting two per year really sounds ridiculous though. Based on Callipygian's first estimate it would be about once every other year.

Here's a visual. Did a quick simulation of results based on an 18 BB/100 standard deviation and 60k hands played a year (a dedicated live professional). Let's take a look at the 5th percentile result for these guys (or a 0.05% chance someone at these respective win rates will perform like this or worse):



Notice how the 2 BB/100 winner (what most all of us would consider a solid winner) has a 5% chance of winning 500 bets or less. As a 20/40 pro, that's $20k a year, or about what you'd make as a full time Walmart employee (and actually, according to real median wages at Walmart, slightly less). 1 BB/100 winner? You could lose easily. Even the crusher at 20/40 (3 BB/100) could see years where his winnings would be scoffed at by an entry level computer science graduate.

So yeah, in live poker, you either really need to be prepared for swings, or you really have to be crushing the games you're in. It's also why some good pros don't really strive to move up; maybe your hourly would be better as a 1 BB/100 winner at 50/100 versus a 2 BB/100 winner at 20/40, but at least with 20/40, you're almost certain to be winning at the end of the year. How does knowing that there's a 5% chance your ledger will show a -$9,420 or worse loss at 50/100 as a full time, dedicated player sound?

Edit: to add, a few key assumptions are consistent win rates across games (unlikely), and a big one of total cyborg mentality, where you can play the exact same X BB/100 winning game, even when you've gone 500 hours of -0.3 BB/hour poker and seeing your bank account dwindle while trying to keep up w/ expenses. And I highly doubt that a lot of 1 BB/100 live win rate type players have that kind of mental fortitude and will be a little snake bit for awhile.

I may retire due to snakebite lol

How did I miss the new thread? Dang.

Retire or expire?

Anyone looking to boost their bankroll? If so you can find me making another run at ss PLO.

I'm playing so little these days and just can't be bothered waiting for a tumbleweed to pass in the barren LHE waistland of American online poker.

Maybe this time I'll actually make it stick. (not likely)

Both?