I think what you're saying makes sense, but I'm curious, if we take your line, what is our river bet? For value? A bluff? With my line, I know I'm good on the river. With your line, I would be way less sure if I was good, which would make me want to check back more often.

Agree with DD, just curious why you think this seems like obvious check Back as it seems like rather obvious river bet (as played) given the action

Even if you decide to check back this river. Betting turn and checking back river is infinitely better than checking back turn and betting river.

It would be thin value. Never as a bluff. Put yourself in villains shoes, imagine your hand is AQ maybe with a spade. What do you do? Call flop and turn and fold river? If so you (hero) want to make his river decision tough. This is a board you should triple barrel plenty of hands. Like QJ one spade, JTs, that's already 10 bluff combos. You could probably add even more. So if you end up bluffing something like 14 combos you are gonna need around 90 value combos. Not sure you will have enough with just big pairs, sets, flushes, and Kx. But do the combo counting for yourself. It's how you learn how to construct your value and bluffing ranges.

I think this deserves its own thread.

What I would say on the situation is that if you are going to check back the turn, you should do it against the type of player who will bet some sort of weaker hand (either thin value or bluff) on the river. In other words, it's nice to have some moderately strong pair hands in your check-back range to call river bets with against a player who will bet wide on the river.

But against a weak-tight station, just bet-bet-bet unless the board gets really scary.

What to do otr may merit discussion but not betting the turn shouldn't.

FWIW, I've seen this player bluff way more than average, which is part of why i check back turn. I'm just never folding to a check-raise from this guy, but at the same time I don't love putting in three bets to get to showdown.

sorry guys but i am not to happy to bet the turn here.
The k hit villain range as hard as ours.
i mean here i feel our bet wins a lot more often on the river ( good bluff catch or thin value bet) if we check the turn than if we bet and get called on the turn.
And we prevent to get c/r on the turn by a worst hand as well.

btw i would not call the river if another spades comes, so checking this turn prevent us of losing a bet on the turn when a spades hit on the river.

If the guys he loose enough and on tilt, making q9s a good hand to 3bet with, surely a check behind turn to entice a bluff should work a fair amount vs this guy in this situation.

Bet this hand for value. Turn worse pairs or A high into a bluff catcher.

Is this based on math?

Like this whole post I really weird to me.

Like checking the turn so we can save a bet on a rivered spade should be like the last thing on your mind. If any thing you should be betting to prevent it.

He'll call a bet with any spade get bets now

And if the guy is on tilt he's more likely to call down thin or do stupid stuff on the turn.

And if he's not going to c/r the king because flush draw, then betting the turn and checking the river still charges and protects better than just let him draw at everything for free

The turn and river should be considered together, if you barrel 14 bluffs you need less than 90 value combos because it's 6:2, not 7:1.

Con't (i was pooping and my kids wanted me to take apart some legos, a detail I probably could have left out but I needed to balance the content range of this thread)

Whether you should bet Q9 depends on what villain will call. You want to construct your value range so that you have about 50-60% equity (depending on whether you intend to calla raiseornot) vs his calling range, then fill in bluffs to balance. If you have too many bluffs you should drop bluffs not add value.

A scary turn card comes up all of the time and at the low stakes I'm playing these days most of the crowd checks it back regularly and then gets upset when the free card they've given beats them. I look at it this way: We 3-bet pre, bet flop and one of the scariest cards hits the turn. If we are scared think about how much the other player is scared unless it's hit his hand. Even if the King makes him a bigger pair there aren't that many who will c/r bec of the flush possibility. I bet the thing HU in position every time.

God bless you Howard. If ever there was proof that just having faith in something a lot can make it true...

In Howard's honor I'm going to spend today having a lot of faith in ten fewer kids getting cancer and it will be true

Happy merica day indeed

Two part question:

Why can't your kids take apart their own legos?

I would guessed you were the kind of dad who got the cool, nerdy 'legos.' So what's the deal? You could play with them yourself

Weed is legal in Nevada. Poker is easy. Howard is schooling the young uns.

And I'll be god damned if he didn't just go and do it. Trump has somehow made America great again. And in record time

Well yeah , actually I have more Kings in my range has opener in HJ than 3betting a HJ raisor.
Not by much but still .

I have no problem with this.
But tilt player imo can c/r with hands worst than us here.
Often their play become erratic so I would be content to put 1BB here and it would be on the river because I would hate to fold to a c/r on turn .

Btw if we bet this, what hands left with have to bluff catch a river bluff ?

Yes but we have two 9's and that is better than a lot of his range that doesn't have a king. And that part of his range we don't want to give a free card toand we very much do want to charge

When people are possibly tilting you should be encouraging it. Why do you want to make them play better? Bet the turn and call down with glee as he shows you Q high

I agree , I am not too convince on my position either
Good hand to analyze .
Problem is, I would not have this hand in my 3bet range so our results might be different

That is my problem, I am not a good exploitative player !

Mods, can we make a separate thread? This is definitely content.

Everybody limps and I'm OTB with 8c5c so I throw my hat in the ring. Flop is Jc 9c 7c and I'm thinking about Vegas and ****ing Mirage, but am nearly drawing dead.

Maybe this should have been its own thread but I find people tend to read and respond to this thread way more often than single hand posts.