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Originally Posted by Bob148
I think the most important takeaway here is that you overvalue winning this pot and undervalue the possibility of a double up. The former will make you feel good like you accomplished your goal more often, but the latter will help you win more tourneys. That's where the money is in tourneys.
This is inaccurate. Bubble stuff matters. ICM stuff matters. Not going busto matters.
Strategically, making better hands fold matters. Without doing a detailed calculation, I would guess that if you can make your opponent fold a better hand even 15% of the time, you're making up for the relatively small equity loss of being in a flip against two overcards preflop by letting those hands out on the flop for half price. The reason to think that 66 would have an equity edge preflop is because you've got a small edge against a ton of two overcard combos.
Most of those combos miss the flop 2/3 of the time. When you win those pots, you don't double up, but you 150% up. I'm doubtful that the marginal improvement of a double-up vs a 150% up when you're short-stacked is meaningful enough to value the double-up that much more. You have a significant increase in your chip stack and you're still alive with a higher frequency.
Again, if you want to assume that your opponent will call a pot sized bet with every pair that beats yours, regardless of flop texture, so be it. So if you think villain snap-calls 88 on a QJ2 board when you call preflop and push the flop, so be it. If you think that your opponents have God-level reads and know exactly what you're pushing the flop with, so be it. But I don't think that makes for a meaningful argument.
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Also, I wouldn't be surprised if your plan is both -chipev and -$ev in the long run. It's just that simple. I don't know how else to explain it without repeating stuff I've already typed out that you already deemed "worthless."
Your lack of surprise doesn't really constitute an argument, nor does anything else you've suggested, especially as you haven't actually given any real comparison between the two strategies. Or if you have, I must have missed it.
There are two very specific strategies being compared. You haven't come down to any details that matter. Constructing arguments with something about check-folding top pair ("We would need to be quite deep in order to check fold QTo on the QJ2 flop" -- which I still fail to see any meaningful relevance for bringing up) doesn't mean anything in this scenario.