Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
This couldn't possibly be true, could it?
It kind of depends on how you define everything.
Purely theoretically, +1 BB/hr WR, 10 BB/hr SD player will face a -300 BB downswing as a -3.5 SD event, meaning once in every 3,800 hours, you will at some point be -300 BB from where you currently are. Note the slide itself can last a long time and that number includes roller coaster stretches like -100, +50, -100, +50, -100, +50, -100, +50, -100.
In practice, winrates aren't independent, and often you have covariance when you play worse when losing.
Also if you raise your SD and lower your winrate it goes downhill very quickly. Like at 0.75 BB/hr WR and 12 BB/hr SD, -300 is now a -2.5 SD event which dramatically raises the probability of it happening (1 in 160 rather than 1 in 3,800).
For a recreational player who puts in like 100 hours a year, you can go your entire life without seeing a -3.5 SD event. This is why for pros the risk management needs to be way way stricter than for an equally skilled recreational player. In all the stats I post I use z = 2 but really pros need to use at least z = 3 because they will hit 1 in 1000 scenarios twice a year.