MP bad reg open raises, HJ fish calls, I 3b TT in CO, both call.

3-way, 10.5 SB: Q86
MP x, HJ donks, I raise, MP cold calls, HJ folds (lol)

HU, 7.5 BB: 3
X thru

HU, 7.5 BB: Q
MP bets, I call

When MP cold calls my flop raise oop, I assume he has TP or a FD. 2P or OE seems unlikely given that he raised pre and a set would likely 3b. That's why I x back OTT because now I can't beat the FD.

But given my read, should I still be calling otr? What can I beat given that he raised pre and cold called my flop raise?

Thoughts?

I would bet the turn. Plenty of value from a bunch of straight draws, pocket pairs below a Q, A6, A8 all of which a bad reg might call two on the flop. Maybe he called with big cards with a heart. If you are putting in another bet, the turn is the place to do it both for value and protection.

As played, I would call. You have underrept your hand so he may be making a thin v bet with a hand you beat. He could be betting a missed straight draw.

Flop raise could be okay if HJ is truly special. Given how he finished the street, probably.

I like a turn check. The kind of hands we hope he has are hands like T9s, which is tougher as we have two tens. Plus we may not even get 3 streets and need to check a street anyway.

I like a river call, even though I expect to be good seldom.

What bluffs can bad reg have besides ak? After an early position open

He might even fold 98 or 87 to the raise

He opened in mp not ep.

He could have a bunch of missed straight draws


It depends on what flavor of "bad reg" this is. I think of a bad reg as someone who plays too many hands pre flop and who calls down in bad spots post flop. Therefore, I exploit this by betting.

He may not have as many straight draws as I first thought. I'm rethinking this one. My original thought was if only one more bet should go in it should be on the turn. This still might be best. Unfortunately we aren't doing as well as I thought.

I'm not as confident in my first answer.

If he didn’t three bet the flop, he’s less likely to ch/r a Q now

A donk is always the top pear or the most obvious draw.

card removal is overridden by the logic of "bet with no outs, check with outs" on the turn. i'd bet that all day and fold to a k/r w/ plans of checking behind a river check and maybe calling a river donk bet.

the flop depends on your read for the type of fish hj is. could be an easy fold or an easy raise.

Can't say I totally agree with the top pair part (agree with the draw, but it certainly doesn't have to be the most obvious draw as I've seen donk bets by gut shots).

I've seen over and over again a donk bet being middle pair that doesn't want to face a cbet nor risk giving a free card by checking. It's kinda like they don't know what to do so they just bet to see what happens.

Would the turn bet be for value or as a bluff?

As for the flop raise I think it's pretty standard. Sure he could have TP but people tend to xc or xr TP instead of donk. Meanwhile he could have any draw, 8x, 6x or a worse PP.

Folding is completely out of the question and calling gives MP a great price to continue and potentially out draw me. That leaves raising which continues to tell a good story and put pressure on both villains.

I think I'm ok with the hand as played. I would not want to be raised on the turn so if I give a free card, so be it. I'd snap call the river and feel pretty good about it.

Why not? Because you think you’re behind or just because you don’t like getting c/r’d?

Most bad regs either bluff way too much or way too seldom. Even good players probably don’t bluff this turn enough because they don’t expect you to fold anything. We’ve raised every chance we’ve had. Even though we know we’re toward the bottom of our value range, he doesn’t. Most people don’t try to bluff you off big pairs, because no body ever folds big pairs

If he bluffs too much, then you want to bet. If he doesn’t bluff enough then when you get c/r’d you’re either drawing dead or to one out, but you protect your hand and get value from a lot of stuff. Hell, checking the turn probably makes a lot of bad flop calls right.

Basically this with the qualifier that it would help a lot if knew what flavor the bad reg was

Terrific. A much better way to think of this hand. In real time I'm sure would keep firing the turn but I'm such a horrible station id probably call down and lose 2 extra bets.

Also, why does everyone just assume ‘bad reg’ just folds his AK or his AJss or his K9ss? Why can we assume he may fold 89s but we can’t assume he may take it to showdown unless stopped by grim death? Bad players do bad things and a lot of the time that bad thing is calling too much. Maybe the bad reg also knows OP is capable of raising this flop with less than Q and is reluctant to let things go easily. Maybe 69s is his favorite hand

TLDR: bet the turn

definitely for value. absolute value bet on the turn. fold if raised.

i'm not sure why folding is out of the question. there's tons of fish out there who literally never make this out of flow bet without top pair or a big draw. you're not alone in this pot either.

The fact that he could have a big draw is reason enough to not fold. There are way more combos of draws than TP. You'd have to be extremely certain the fish would only donk out with TP to consider folding...but that's not really a fish. That's a nit, and nits don't really exist in limit. More so in NL.

A fish will donk out with all sorts of trash which is why folding is out of the question for me.

grunch

I like the flop raise. You're clearly not going to fold and raising is clearly better than calling because it increases your chances to win an already good-sized pot.

In my opinion, our check on the turn is for pot control. We don't have a huge hand. HJ's donk is most likely a queen, a flush draw or a straight draw. Our hand is not strong against that entire range.

I call the river expecting to be beat, but at least it protects us from being bluffed off future rivers.

I haven't done any detailed analysis, but it seems we are better off trying to get value from the few hands we can on the turn than trying to induce bluffs or thin bets from this same range. One more bet at the most should be going in and we can easily b/f the turn. There are just not enough missed draws or thin value in the villains range by the time the river hits. I think betting the turn actually is the better way to prevent getting bluffed off our hand. There are some bad river cards for us.

That last bit is what I was underrating. If we check turn and it's the Jh river and he bets, now what?