7-handed

I raise AQ utg, MP calls, blinds call

4-way, 8 SB: T42
I cbet, only MP calls. She seems pretty stationy.

HU, 5 BB: 5
I bet, she calls

Riv 8x, I x planning to fold.

Thoughts?

Standard check/call imo.

Any chance you get her to fold a 2,4, or 5 to bet on river?

If I bet the flop 4 ways and nobody raises then I always continue for one bet on the turn.

I think this is an innate stipulation of value betting in 4+ way pots. If you think check folding on the turn is correct then I think you should check the flop.

No clue tbh. Never played with her before and I'd only been at the table for maybe half an hour. My gut tells me no though.

Well no one said anything about xf turn. I bet turn because I can still beat FDs, Ax and overcards, and sometimes 2x and 4x calls once and folds turn. And also because I picked up a GS.

And I cbet flop because I had the BDNFD. Otherwise I would have checked it in a 4-way pot.

In this situation, I might bet the river for meta game reasons.

If called just show your hand. Might help you get called down later when you actually have the goods.

Yeah I mixed up the (flop+turn) with (turn+river).

Would you bet the nut backdoor draw no matter how many players are in the pot?

I think this plan is inconsistent with the turn play. If it's correct to bet the turn for showdown value, protection, and draw nuttyness, it's quite likely that you should check call the river because you can beat a bluff.

This topic is discussed in one of Newall's books.

However, there are some catches:

If we separate the three pre river ev sources and talk about them, we can see some possibilities that could make it correct to bet a showdownable hand on the turn and then check fold the river:

showdown value. by betting, we reduce the profitability of our opponent's range.

protection: by making our opponent fold, we earn (pot) a fraction of the time.

draw nuttyness: a somewhat intangible ev source, which is most affected by the true number of outs our hand has on average.

So what does this mean for AsQo on the turn?

showdown value isn't enough to bet unimproved on the river, which regresses AQo to a bluffcatcher on the river.

protection value is low as noted by the "stationy" read given in the op.

draw nuttyness is medium rare imo. Tasty, but risky.

Now, all that seems to add up to a very slightly profitable turn bet as it's not exactly a disaster if we get called, and because we're only investing about 14.3% of the pot. We most certainly get back that plus some extra in the long run even when called.

However, now consider the profitability of checking in a 5bb pot:

showdown value: much higher than when betting because the opponent will not fold, naturally.

protection value is not applicable.

draw nuttyness is higher than when betting because of the opponent's wider range. Our true outs is a higher value than when we bet because if we bet the opponent can fold the worst hands.

No way x/f on turn is correct and I favor betting vs x/c against unknown. I would just pay off on river if they bet, although she has to be calling flop and turn with zero piece for you to be good. All the straight draws have at least a pair now. I can’t remember if a flush draw was possible, but if it was, that makes x/c river better. Against unknowns, I don’t mind paying off river bets here and gathering data. Also, for the same reason, I don’t hate triple barreling here and priming myself for a spewy image.

Having the A makes it much less likely that Villain has a busted flush draw that they will bluff. Lets say her pf CC spade range is Ax+,K5+,Q7+, J8+, 98+ (given the stationy vibe). So that's 12 combos of Ax that isn't in their bluffing range and 19 other spades that are (And some of those made pairs! ). That is a hefty chuck of bluffs gone from the range.

The more I think about it, I'm leaning towards leading the river for image purposes plus the small fold equity chance. 33, A2 and A4 have to fold some % of the time, right?

Check folding seems too weak/exploitable unless you plan on putting some river value check raises in your range