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Originally Posted by DTLB
Well no one said anything about xf turn. I bet turn because I can still beat FDs, Ax and overcards, and sometimes 2x and 4x calls once and folds turn. And also because I picked up a GS.
Yeah I mixed up the (flop+turn) with (turn+river).
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And I cbet flop because I had the BDNFD. Otherwise I would have checked it in a 4-way pot.
Would you bet the nut backdoor draw no matter how many players are in the pot?
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HU, 5 BB: 5
I bet, she calls
Riv 8x, I x planning to fold.
I think this plan is inconsistent with the turn play. If it's correct to bet the turn for showdown value, protection, and draw nuttyness, it's quite likely that you should check call the river because you can beat a bluff.
This topic is discussed in one of Newall's books.
However, there are some catches:
If we separate the three pre river ev sources and talk about them, we can see some possibilities that could make it correct to bet a showdownable hand on the turn and then check fold the river:
showdown value. by betting, we reduce the profitability of our opponent's range.
protection: by making our opponent fold, we earn (pot) a fraction of the time.
draw nuttyness: a somewhat intangible ev source, which is most affected by the true number of outs our hand has on average.
So what does this mean for AsQo on the turn?
showdown value isn't enough to bet unimproved on the river, which regresses AQo to a bluffcatcher on the river.
protection value is low as noted by the "stationy" read given in the op.
draw nuttyness is medium rare imo. Tasty, but risky.
Now, all that seems to add up to a very slightly profitable turn bet as it's not exactly a disaster if we get called, and because we're only investing about 14.3% of the pot. We most certainly get back that plus some extra in the long run even when called.
However, now consider the profitability of checking in a 5bb pot:
showdown value: much higher than when betting because the opponent will not fold, naturally.
protection value is not applicable.
draw nuttyness is higher than when betting because of the opponent's wider range. Our true outs is a higher value than when we bet because if we bet the opponent can fold the worst hands.