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Old 09-29-2014, 02:23 PM   #26
NoMeansYes_
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

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Old 09-29-2014, 02:25 PM   #27
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Will have an update soon with the new PS.com payouts.
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Old 09-29-2014, 05:36 PM   #28
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_13


Added preset payout structures for PokerStars.com $1, $3, and $7/$15/$30 Spin&Go.
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Old 09-29-2014, 06:00 PM   #29
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

I wish every software developer provided such quick (and working!) updates when they're as easy as this
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Old 09-29-2014, 06:07 PM   #30
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Thanks, me too!

Any award for such behavior should go to pokerancer for Table Tamer, imho. He is quite amazing given it's free software and tremendously more complex.
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Old 09-29-2014, 10:00 PM   #31
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Cut View Post
http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_13


Added preset payout structures for PokerStars.com $1, $3, and $7/$15/$30 Spin&Go.
Speedy work! Does it handle the special 10% loser payouts for the top tiers? (basically 120% prize pool payout for the 100x 200x and 1000x games)
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Old 09-29-2014, 10:02 PM   #32
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Yes, it does. The payouts are listed there as 83.333%, 8.333% and 8.333% of the total prize pool (as you can see, the 2nd-3rd place payout is exactly 1/10 of the 1st place one).
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Old 09-29-2014, 10:39 PM   #33
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Yeah exactly, thanks coon74.

Looking for better free hosting alternatives. Not sure how long a free dropbox link lasts, but let's try.
(Same version as http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_13 )

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0
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Old 09-30-2014, 12:40 AM   #34
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

By default, Dropbox links never expire (unless you set an expiration date, which free accounts can't do anyway, or accidentally move the file).
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Old 09-30-2014, 08:07 AM   #35
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Cut View Post
Yeah exactly, thanks coon74.

Looking for better free hosting alternatives. Not sure how long a free dropbox link lasts, but let's try.
(Same version as http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_13 )

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0
I'll happily host on pokerfuse's CDN for free if you like, let me know.
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Old 09-30-2014, 09:52 AM   #36
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hood View Post
I'll happily host on pokerfuse's CDN for free if you like, let me know.
That would be great. Thanks!
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Old 09-30-2014, 10:42 AM   #37
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

http://cdn1.pokerfuse.com/misc/swongsim.zip

You probably already know this, but Spin & Go, launched on PokerStars France, same payouts as Spain but i guess you could change the label to "Spain/France" for those looking for it.
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Old 09-30-2014, 11:02 AM   #38
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Thanks Hood!

Quote:
You probably already know this, but Spin & Go, launched on PokerStars France, same payouts as Spain but i guess you could change the label to "Spain/France" for those looking for it.
Updated version at dropbox link. Thanks again.
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Old 10-02-2014, 05:03 PM   #39
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

This is amazing work OP, thanks so much!

Now I just need to figure out what my win rate is.
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Old 10-02-2014, 05:07 PM   #40
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Its great man. Thank you
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Old 10-02-2014, 05:13 PM   #41
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Cheers guys.

I use the visual thingy for gaining intuition and then crank up the sim number in text only for more solid numbers (it's faster).

Feel free to post questions or comments since I didn't really make a manual or anything.
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Old 10-02-2014, 07:35 PM   #42
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

When the results are graphed, the X axis is the number of games, and the Y axis is the number of buy-ins won? Is that correct? So I multiply that by the buy-ins ($15, $30, etc) to get the amount of profit pre-rakeback?
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Old 10-02-2014, 07:45 PM   #43
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Yes. Also, if you select the "$ Winnings" and enter the buyin amount, it will show all results in $.





Edit: Also, note the winnings include rakeback according to the rakeback percentage specified on the settings page (default is 0%).

Last edited by Max Cut; 10-02-2014 at 07:57 PM.
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Old 10-02-2014, 10:19 PM   #44
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Maybe i am asking too much, and it might be hard to do, but i would love see MTT support! choosing field, number of players etc

Anyway thanks again for your awesome work!
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Old 10-02-2014, 11:28 PM   #45
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Thanks, I honestly like hearing all suggestions because I feel no pressure to have to do any of them (a big benefit of free software development ) and often they're good ideas.

My old sim could handle them (any number of payout spots) so it's not too hard. Might be worth adding something to this since some people are mentioning the comparison of lottery-payout SNG variance to MTT variance.

Added to list, but probably back burner for the immediate future.
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Old 10-03-2014, 01:55 AM   #46
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7a.m.@hu View Post
Maybe i am asking too much, and it might be hard to do, but i would love see MTT support! choosing field, number of players etc

Anyway thanks again for your awesome work!
+1, it would provide MTT backers with the important figures like lifetime low points that pokerdope.com doesn't calculate, and neither does any other public MTT variance simulator (if they exist at all), to my knowledge.
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Old 10-03-2014, 09:40 AM   #47
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Is there any way to figure out how many matches of 3max lottery SNGs we need to play to estimate our true ROI/hourly rate using this tool?
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Old 10-03-2014, 12:03 PM   #48
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Des_Astar View Post
Is there any way to figure out how many matches of 3max lottery SNGs we need to play to estimate our true ROI/hourly rate using this tool?
There's a bit of trial and error involved.

First pin down your question to something like, after how many games will I know with 99% certainty my true ROI is no higher than 1% more than my results and with 99% certainty my true ROI is no lower than 1% less than my results? (The more certain and smaller plus/minus range you ask about, the more games will be needed.)


Let's assume your results are 2.6% ROI.

Now run sims with ROI 3.6% (adjust the Player Finish Distribution until you get the desired Expected ROI), increasing the number of games until you get the line
Code:
1%    had ROI below 2.6%
(or at least something very close to 2.6%).

Spoiler:

So after 1 million games, if your results are 2.6% ROI, there is about 1% chance that your true ROI is 3.6% or more. (Because if your true ROI was 3.6% or more, these simulations imply there's only a 1% chance you would see an actual result of 2.6% ROI.)


Then run sims with ROI 1.6%, increasing the number of games until you get the line
Code:
99%    had ROI below 2.6%
(or at least something very close to 2.6%).

Spoiler:

So after 1.25 million games, if your results are 2.6% ROI, there is about 1% chance that your true ROI is 1.6% or lower.

The larger number of games from these two is your answer. (They will probably be relatively close to the same.) So about 1.25 million games for this example.
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Old 10-03-2014, 02:09 PM   #49
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Cut View Post
Thanks Hood!

Updated version at dropbox link. Thanks again.
I've updated the version on http://cdn1.pokerfuse.com/misc/swongsim.zip
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Old 10-03-2014, 02:30 PM   #50
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Des_Astar View Post
Is there any way to figure out how many matches of 3max lottery SNGs we need to play to estimate our true ROI/hourly rate using this tool?
It's easier done by estimating your all-in adjusted ITM as explained in this post; pre-rakeback ROI = ITM * 2.88 - 100% for games with 4% rake, for 5% or 7% rake replace 2.88(=3*0.96) by 2.85 or 2.79 respectively.

With this method, 1K-2K games are quite enough.
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