Will have an update soon with the new PS.com payouts.

http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_13


Added preset payout structures for PokerStars.com $1, $3, and $7/$15/$30 Spin&Go.

I wish every software developer provided such quick (and working!) updates when they're as easy as this

Thanks, me too!

Any award for such behavior should go to pokerancer for Table Tamer, imho. He is quite amazing given it's free software and tremendously more complex.

Speedy work! Does it handle the special 10% loser payouts for the top tiers? (basically 120% prize pool payout for the 100x 200x and 1000x games)

Yes, it does. The payouts are listed there as 83.333%, 8.333% and 8.333% of the total prize pool (as you can see, the 2nd-3rd place payout is exactly 1/10 of the 1st place one).

Yeah exactly, thanks coon74.

Looking for better free hosting alternatives. Not sure how long a free dropbox link lasts, but let's try.
(Same version as http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_13 )

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

By default, Dropbox links never expire (unless you set an expiration date, which free accounts can't do anyway, or accidentally move the file).

I'll happily host on pokerfuse's CDN for free if you like, let me know.

That would be great. Thanks!

http://cdn1.pokerfuse.com/misc/swongsim.zip

You probably already know this, but Spin & Go, launched on PokerStars France, same payouts as Spain but i guess you could change the label to "Spain/France" for those looking for it.

Thanks Hood!

Updated version at dropbox link. Thanks again.

This is amazing work OP, thanks so much!

Now I just need to figure out what my win rate is.

Its great man. Thank you

Cheers guys.

I use the visual thingy for gaining intuition and then crank up the sim number in text only for more solid numbers (it's faster).

Feel free to post questions or comments since I didn't really make a manual or anything.

When the results are graphed, the X axis is the number of games, and the Y axis is the number of buy-ins won? Is that correct? So I multiply that by the buy-ins ($15, $30, etc) to get the amount of profit pre-rakeback?

Yes. Also, if you select the "$ Winnings" and enter the buyin amount, it will show all results in $.





Edit: Also, note the winnings include rakeback according to the rakeback percentage specified on the settings page (default is 0%).

Maybe i am asking too much, and it might be hard to do, but i would love see MTT support! choosing field, number of players etc

Anyway thanks again for your awesome work!

Thanks, I honestly like hearing all suggestions because I feel no pressure to have to do any of them (a big benefit of free software development ) and often they're good ideas.

My old sim could handle them (any number of payout spots) so it's not too hard. Might be worth adding something to this since some people are mentioning the comparison of lottery-payout SNG variance to MTT variance.

Added to list, but probably back burner for the immediate future.

+1, it would provide MTT backers with the important figures like lifetime low points that pokerdope.com doesn't calculate, and neither does any other public MTT variance simulator (if they exist at all), to my knowledge.

Is there any way to figure out how many matches of 3max lottery SNGs we need to play to estimate our true ROI/hourly rate using this tool?

There's a bit of trial and error involved.

First pin down your question to something like, after how many games will I know with 99% certainty my true ROI is no higher than 1% more than my results and with 99% certainty my true ROI is no lower than 1% less than my results? (The more certain and smaller plus/minus range you ask about, the more games will be needed.)


Let's assume your results are 2.6% ROI.

Now run sims with ROI 3.6% (adjust the Player Finish Distribution until you get the desired Expected ROI), increasing the number of games until you get the line
(or at least something very close to 2.6%).


So after 1 million games, if your results are 2.6% ROI, there is about 1% chance that your true ROI is 3.6% or more. (Because if your true ROI was 3.6% or more, these simulations imply there's only a 1% chance you would see an actual result of 2.6% ROI.)


Then run sims with ROI 1.6%, increasing the number of games until you get the line
(or at least something very close to 2.6%).


So after 1.25 million games, if your results are 2.6% ROI, there is about 1% chance that your true ROI is 1.6% or lower.

The larger number of games from these two is your answer. (They will probably be relatively close to the same.) So about 1.25 million games for this example.

I've updated the version on http://cdn1.pokerfuse.com/misc/swongsim.zip

It's easier done by estimating your all-in adjusted ITM as explained in this post; pre-rakeback ROI = ITM * 2.88 - 100% for games with 4% rake, for 5% or 7% rake replace 2.88(=3*0.96) by 2.85 or 2.79 respectively.

With this method, 1K-2K games are quite enough.