Thanks it might be that i think


By the way!!! i finally find how to get my standard deviation EVchip/game

Just create new player report, add tourney and Evchip,
Export as excel,
And use this fabulous page, https://www.easycalculation.com/stat...-deviation.php

Mine in spin is 414.

Nice. Thanks for tip and for the additional data point.

-Max


Download link:
www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

How much % do you estimate AdjustedEVchip is part of the whole variance in 25bb and less games Hu/3h?

Obiously in mediumterm you relative skill level change,(you or your opponent can improve) You can play more or less your Agame etc

But more theoretically speaking how big is the part of variance comes from; cards distribution/floping nuts/turning draws etc

I am asking because i find simulating (with corect std devation) the variance of EV is very low. seems too low to be real in lets say 2k sngs, but i might be wrong
Cheers

I don't know the answer, but my intuition agrees with you. I'm thinking the skew in "real life" adjusted chips leads to worse swings than are produced in the non-skewed simulations. (Hence the warnings.) At this point it's still just a guess though.

If I recall correctly, coon74 suggested in an earlier post that one could run simulations with and without multipliers for comparison, to see the relative impact of CD vs multipliers.

--Max


Download link:
www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

cool software!

Hi quick question. When i run the visualizer with 47 chip ev for 2k games and 400 standard deviation the result i get is that the top 1% got a 68.2 chip ev or higher. Does this mean that if over my last 2k games i got a 68.2 chip ev then there is a 1% chance that my true chip is 47 or lower right?

Yes, that is a correct way of using it. Keep in mind that the actual ev chip results have skew that is not represented in the simulations, so I recommend caution interpreting any conclusions.

Added PokerStars NJ to the Preset Payout Structures list.


Download link:

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

Sorry if somebody are asking the same before but ¿How we can change the effective rake in the case of spin and go of 15$ to 100$? thanks

The effective rake is determined by the "frequncey" and "Buyins" numbers used. For example, keeping the buyins at each tier the same and shifting frequencies down from higher tiers to lower tiers will increase the effective rake. Conversely, shifting the up will lower the effective rake.

Just let me know if that does not answer your question.

Updated presets for new PokerStars payout structures. (Kept the old presets in for comparison.)

Download link:

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

There is some kind of bug. Lets say I want to know my expected ROI after rakeback without top 3 multipliers. Please watch the short vid and take a look on "expected ROI with rakeback" and how it changes.

http://screencast.com/t/HKwFGXMqHz

Thank you for the bug report. It does not handle blank entries properly (nor other non-numbers). I have added it to my list.

----

On a separate note for anyone doing the type of analysis shown in the video, the rake return % should be adjusted to compensate for the increase in calculated rake.

In the example shown, actual rake is 5% and the calculated rake after zeroing the top 3 tiers is 7%. Without adjusting, SwongSim uses 30% rakeback on the 7% rake. So it adds in 2.1% of a buyin for each game. But 30% of the actual 5% rake is 1.5% of a buyin.

The adjustment to be made is:

adjusted rake return = original rake / adjusted rake * original rake return

So for the example shown, set rake return to 5/7 * 30% = 21.4%

You will see this results in 150 buyins differrence between pre- and post-rakeback ROI, which is the same as the original difference.


GL and thanks again for the report.

--Max



Download link:

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

The correct way to do what you wanted is to leave the frequencies intact but set the corresponding multipliers (12000, 240, 120) to 0. Make sure that the frequencies add up to the number shown in the 'Out Of' field at the end of editing.

Will you be adding in PartyPoker's version of Spins anytime soon?

I am looking into it. With the bounty it will not be trivial, so unfortunately I'm not sure exactly when it will get added.

is there a guide on how to use this software and interpret the information it provides?

Not yet, at least that I'm aware of. But there should be!

-------------------------
Download link:

www.dropbox.com/s/ukpadqy24se12th/SwongSim.exe?dl=0

ok maybe im doing something wrong then...

In PT4, Net expected chips won = expected chips per game correct?

I just enter cEV along with my 1-3 place finish distribution & rake return %. Then click run button and move over the the text output tab?

Pretty much. I like to set the number of simulations a bit higher (10k or higher, depending on your computer power). Then set the number of games you want to simulate. Make sure you have the right payout structure selected from the presets. You can enter your finish position percentages directly or you can click the "EV Chips" button and enter the chips per game you want to simulate (this will calculate and enter an appropriate finish distribution). Enter the rakeback and how often you get it added to your roll.

Then you can click Run and go to the text output or you can go to the Visualizer and click draw (the Visualizer will give output on the Text Output tab as well).

this might make no sense but is there a way to measure the fluxuations of cEV in swongsim as well ? like how likely you are to have a way lower/negative cEV over say 2k games with a "true" cEV of say 55 ? like how much does cd affect your cEV over that sample basically (i only ask because i'd imagine in a 400 stddev format it would matter a lot more than people currently care to admit)

as i understand i can see the real $ swings with my chosen WR but not the according EV swings ... maybe i am mixing everything up here idk but hopefully someone understands what i wrote and can help out

It does make sense.

There is an EV Chip mode on the visualizer tab. Enter the number of games and simulations on the settings tab and then the Chips per game you want to simulate and a standard deviation (likely somewhere in the 350-500 range) on the visualizer tab. Heed the caution when interpreting results.




A bit more discussion earlier in the thread:

forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=48982849&postcount=191

Hi, using HEM2 I can get std dev bb or std dev bb per 100, is it either of these i put into the visualizer along with chips ev per game? If not how do i convert either of those std dev numbers so i can plug them in please.

Thankyou

Unfortunately, it's not either of those. It is std dev of EV chips per game that you want.

Is there anyway to use HEM to find it do you know please? Great sofrware;