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Old 08-20-2014, 10:56 PM   #1
Max Cut
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SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Decided to share this for my 2000th 2+2 post.

Lottery-payout SNGs have prize-pool amounts that are determined by random draw at the beginning of each game, typically varying from 2 buyins (for 3max STT) up to 1000 or 2000 buyins for the top tier. An example payout structure is the Full Tilt Jackpot SNG:


This software is a tool for studying existing and possible structures and their impact on variance.







This is a work in progress. Bug report and suggestions welcome.


http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_1

Sorry about the ad-laden hosting site. :/
Pic of which link is not an ad:
Spoiler:
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Old 08-20-2014, 11:08 PM   #2
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Haha, download links are less hidden at that hosting than at some other I've visited I'm to test the soft now.

Edit upon testing / remarks:

1. In the 2nd column of the test results, there's a misprint 'finsih' (as even seen in the screenshot).

2. The program becomes irresponsive halfway through a calculation (even with the default 1K sims, 10K games, on an OK laptop with 8 GB RAM).

3. The rakeback itself is a less useful stat in the graph than EV+rakeback.

4. Are downswings, low points etc. calculated with or without rakeback? Assuming the latter, those figures are rather useless, as rakeback surely contributes massively to not going broke in this format. However, the low point with RB is lower than the pre-RB low point plus the total RB, because the RB at that point is only some part of the total. The 'low point with RB' figures would surely be very useful.

5. I've experienced a visualiser bug presumably triggered by minimising the window into the tray - right after I unminimised it, I got a popup about an exception asking whether to close the program or continue. After that, the visualiser drew a red cross instead of a graph; when asked to redraw, it was calculating and drawing temporary graphs but again drew a red cross in the end. I'll try to reproduce it to see if minimisation is indeed the reason.

6. Only integer finish frequencies can be specified. Allowing fractional percentages like 34.5% would be nice.

7. The minimum prize in Twister Poker has recently been changed to exactly 2 BIs, without extra cents.

Last edited by coon74; 08-20-2014 at 11:37 PM.
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Old 08-20-2014, 11:44 PM   #3
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Yeah, the unhandled exception occurs in Win 7 every time I go to the visualizer tab, minimise and then unminimise the window, without even calculating anything. I don't run programs specifically as admin, but UAC is disabled, so I think there's no difference when I run it the usual way; 'tony' is the only user account of the OS and the admin.
Code:
************** Exception Text **************
System.ArgumentException: Parameter is not valid.
   at System.Drawing.Bitmap..ctor(Int32 width, Int32 height, PixelFormat format)
   at TPRsim.swongForm.graphPanel_Paint(Object sender, PaintEventArgs e)
   at System.Windows.Forms.Control.PaintTransparentBackground(PaintEventArgs e, Rectangle rectangle, Region transparentRegion)
   at System.Windows.Forms.Control.PaintTransparentBackground(PaintEventArgs e, Rectangle rectangle)
   at System.Windows.Forms.Control.PaintBackground(PaintEventArgs e, Rectangle rectangle, Color backColor, Point scrollOffset)
   at System.Windows.Forms.Control.PaintBackground(PaintEventArgs e, Rectangle rectangle)
   at System.Windows.Forms.Control.OnPaintBackground(PaintEventArgs pevent)
   at System.Windows.Forms.ScrollableControl.OnPaintBackground(PaintEventArgs e)
   at System.Windows.Forms.Control.PaintWithErrorHandling(PaintEventArgs e, Int16 layer)
   at System.Windows.Forms.Control.WmEraseBkgnd(Message& m)
   at System.Windows.Forms.Control.WndProc(Message& m)
   at System.Windows.Forms.NativeWindow.Callback(IntPtr hWnd, Int32 msg, IntPtr wparam, IntPtr lparam)


************** Loaded Assemblies **************
mscorlib
    Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0
    Win32 Version: 4.0.30319.18444 built by: FX451RTMGDR
    CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/Microsoft.NET/Framework64/v4.0.30319/mscorlib.dll
----------------------------------------
SwongSim
    Assembly Version: 1.0.0.0
    Win32 Version: 1.0.0.0
    CodeBase: file:///C:/Users/tony/Downloads/SwongSim.exe
----------------------------------------
System.Windows.Forms
    Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0
    Win32 Version: 4.0.30319.18408 built by: FX451RTMGREL
    CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Windows.Forms/v4.0_4.0.0.0__b77a5c561934e089/System.Windows.Forms.dll
----------------------------------------
System.Drawing
    Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0
    Win32 Version: 4.0.30319.18408 built by: FX451RTMGREL
    CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Drawing/v4.0_4.0.0.0__b03f5f7f11d50a3a/System.Drawing.dll
----------------------------------------
System
    Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0
    Win32 Version: 4.0.30319.18408 built by: FX451RTMGREL
    CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System/v4.0_4.0.0.0__b77a5c561934e089/System.dll
Edit: it goes without saying that simulations with rakeback are easier to do by just subtracting the RB from the BI. Those who wish to look up pre-RB swings can just set RB=0%.

An advanced option could be to set up different types of RB that are added to the bankroll after a specified number of games or (equivalently) amount of rake paid, and life expenses that are subtracted after a set number of games. Say, $600 Supernova FPP bonuses can be bought after every $2077.93 of rake; whereas milestone rewards are less frequent - credited after every 100K VPPs = $18182 of rake (though they have a smaller % value so aren't as influential as FPPs). Probably I'm exaggerating the influence of delays in RB, but it exists for sure.

Last edited by coon74; 08-21-2014 at 12:03 AM.
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Old 08-20-2014, 11:52 PM   #4
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Thanks!

http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_2
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Old 08-21-2014, 12:10 AM   #5
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Version 2 has fixed the bug with the unhandled exception, thanks!
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Old 08-21-2014, 12:11 AM   #6
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
Haha, download links are less hidden at that hosting than at some other I've visited I'm to test the soft now.

Edit upon testing / remarks:

1. In the 2nd column of the test results, there's a misprint 'finsih' (as even seen in the screenshot).

ty, fixed.

2. The program becomes irresponsive halfway through a calculation (even with the default 1K sims, 10K games, on an OK laptop with 8 GB RAM).

Does the progress advance at all? It is pretty CPU and RAM intensive and not threaded or anything, i.e., a resource hog. But 8 gigs *seems* like it should be ok. Does it complete with "Run Text Only" checked?

3. The rakeback itself is a less useful stat in the graph than EV+rakeback.

Will add this.

4. Are downswings, low points etc. calculated with or without rakeback? Assuming the latter, those figures are rather useless, as rakeback surely contributes massively to not going broke in this format. However, the low point with RB is lower than the pre-RB low point plus the total RB, because the RB at that point is only some part of the total. The 'low point with RB' figures would surely be very useful.

Those are with rakeback added to each game, so only the rakeback earned at any point in the simulation, if that makes sense. It's not completely realistic, since in real life, rakeback is only awarded periodically and not after each game.

5. I've experienced a visualiser bug presumably triggered by minimising the window into the tray - right after I unminimised it, I got a popup about an exception asking whether to close the program or continue. After that, the visualiser drew a red cross instead of a graph; when asked to redraw, it was calculating and drawing temporary graphs but again drew a red cross in the end. I'll try to reproduce it to see if minimisation is indeed the reason.

6. Only integer finish frequencies can be specified. Allowing fractional percentages like 34.5% would be nice.

Will add this.

7. The minimum prize in Twister Poker has recently been changed to exactly 2 BIs, without extra cents.

ty, fixed for next update.
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Old 08-21-2014, 12:23 AM   #7
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

It does complete with 'Run Text Only' checked, so it's a grapher issue. And the graph gets finished, just gets stuck for a while halfway.

(Edit: and the problem is with neither the RAM nor the CPU because, even in the high priority mode, the program eats merely 12% of the CPU and up to 200 MB of the RAM (100 MB in the normal mode), with a lot more left idle.)

The 'rakeback added to each game' model is fine, I'd do it this way myself too.

Oh, and indeed, the 'EV' in the graph is the EV with the RB added. That's how it should be, thanks.

Last edited by coon74; 08-21-2014 at 12:35 AM.
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Old 08-21-2014, 12:36 AM   #8
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Ah good to hear at least the sim results are available. Time permitting, I hope to streamline the graphical end at some point.

I should have mentioned, rakeback is already included in the EV line. The rakeback line itself is just to show what portion is just rakeback.


http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_3

Twister frequency updated.
Fractional frequencies supported.
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Old 08-21-2014, 12:43 AM   #9
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
(Edit: and the problem is with neither the RAM nor the CPU because, even in the high priority mode, the program eats merely 12% of the CPU and up to 200 MB of the RAM (100 MB in the normal mode), with a lot more left idle.)
Thanks for the info. I'll poke around and undoubtedly find bugs, hopefully the one causing this behavior.
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Old 08-21-2014, 01:11 AM   #10
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Cut View Post
I should have mentioned, rakeback is already included in the EV line. The rakeback line itself is just to show what portion is just rakeback.


http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_3

Twister frequency updated.
Fractional frequencies supported.
Confirmed (the updates work fine). Thanks!
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Old 08-21-2014, 01:20 AM   #11
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

I keep missing edits!

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
Edit: it goes without saying that simulations with rakeback are easier to do by just subtracting the RB from the BI. Those who wish to look up pre-RB swings can just set RB=0%.


Quote:
An advanced option could be to set up different types of RB that are added to the bankroll after a specified number of games or (equivalently) amount of rake paid, and life expenses that are subtracted after a set number of games. Say, $600 Supernova FPP bonuses can be bought after every $2077.93 of rake; whereas milestone rewards are less frequent - credited after every 100K VPPs = $18182 of rake (though they have a smaller % value so aren't as influential as FPPs). Probably I'm exaggerating the influence of delays in RB, but it exists for sure.
Nice suggestion. I made a BRM sim a while back and kept adding stuff like this to better simulate moving up (and down) stakes. It could make a significant BRM difference on the network I was playing at the time, where some skins had daily rakeback and others had monthly. It's a fair amount of work to make it flexible enough to be very useful (so not terrifically likely atm), but will definitely keep this in mind.
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Old 08-21-2014, 10:36 AM   #12
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
2. The program becomes irresponsive halfway through a calculation (even with the default 1K sims, 10K games, on an OK laptop with 8 GB RAM).
http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_4

You should see much less "Not Responding" now. Eventually I'll learn how to multi-thread and it will be more well behaved while running (able to move the window around, etc.)
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Old 08-21-2014, 09:05 PM   #13
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Thanks, it's way more stable now and actually more entertaining sue to drawing graphs in small batches

I'll work mostly with the text format anyway, but you asked for bug reports, so I was eager to give it a few slight crash tests
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Old 08-22-2014, 01:49 AM   #14
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Very much appreciated.


http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_5

Disable interface while simulations running.
Simulation engine speed up (text-only mode is faster).
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Old 08-22-2014, 06:01 PM   #15
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_6

Added display for total sum of frequencies entered.
Visualizer engine speed up.
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Old 08-22-2014, 10:15 PM   #16
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

One thing you didn't mention is that v. 6 shows the % of rakeback in the graph, which surely makes it more readable

Your dedication to improving the product is incredible; I can't name another poker software developer who rolls out such substantial updates every day!
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Old 08-24-2014, 11:09 AM   #17
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

Thanks! But the sample is only a few days. To be honest, it's simply a sign of releasing early. Spin&Gos might be coming to ps.com soon!



http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_7

Added a few non-lottery-payout structures to the presets in order to facilitate comparative studies.
  • HU/Winner take all
  • 6m 60/40
  • 6m 65/35
  • 6m 70/30
  • 9m 50/30/20
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Old 08-25-2014, 03:15 AM   #18
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

cool ****, thanks!
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Old 08-27-2014, 08:46 AM   #19
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

really awesomw tool! i was using roi simulator (i think ?) your sof is WAY better! thx very much!

Any way to add an option to show everything in $$$ instead of Buyins?
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Old 08-27-2014, 01:16 PM   #20
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

tyty

http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_8
  • Added option to show results in $ or buyins.
  • Added horizontal axis tick marks to vizualizer output.
  • Changed text output to read only.
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Old 08-27-2014, 01:56 PM   #21
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

you rocks! thx!
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Old 08-29-2014, 01:43 PM   #22
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_9
  • Options to display PokerStars VPPs and/or Full Tilt FTPs earned for given simulation settings.
  • Bug fixes for degenerate cases and for saving settings.
  • Removed the redraw option from visualizer since the time to do the simulations is small compared to the time to draw.
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Old 09-03-2014, 07:24 PM   #23
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_10
  • Settings saved to text file in more human-readable format.
  • Option to show traces on the visualizer. (Limited to 3 at the moment.) These trace the "confidence intervals" across the graphical display as seen in the image below. (Confidence intervals in quotes since I'm not sure they meet the technical definition.)
  • Option to save image of settings page along with graph for easier informed sharing.
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Old 09-04-2014, 08:08 PM   #24
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_11

Bug fix: Crashes when minimized while drawing.
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Old 09-12-2014, 11:11 AM   #25
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Re: SwongSim -- ROI/variance simulator for lottery-payout SNGs (2k post)

http://www.filedropper.com/swongsim_12

Added PokerStars Italy Spin&Go. (lol 9% rake)
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