Cooler Hunter EV - Innovative Luck Analyzer!
04-26-2011
, 12:51 PM
Quote:
But in hands that don't showdown, you have no idea what your street by street EV was or how to calculate it. So any street by street EV that includes any non-showdown hands is meaningless and just a guess.
Also, you can't compare all in EV with overall winnings. You compare it to overall winnings in all in hands; not all hands. So you compare street by street EV to winnings in all showdown hands; not all hands.
Also, you can't compare all in EV with overall winnings. You compare it to overall winnings in all in hands; not all hands. So you compare street by street EV to winnings in all showdown hands; not all hands.
Lets imagine that we are to graph 3 hands:
1st hand: You folded and lost $10 (there was no showdown).
2nd hand: Your opponent foded and you won $20 (there was no showdown).
3d hand: Your stacks on preflop and won $100 with AIEV=$80 (there was showdown).
That is how HM/PT and we do it.
05-01-2011
, 05:42 AM
UPDATE TO: beta 6.
Cooler Hunter will update automatically.
If you have some problems with update, delete the current version from your computer and download a new one.
Some explanations.
I see that something is not clear for some of you, so I have to share my thoughts about this program, specifically about All-In EV, Street by Street EV and Cooler Hunter EV. All of these methods of luck estimation are mathematical, but the number of factors they calculate are different. Someday, graphs of All-In EV, Street by Street EV and Cooler Hunter EV will match with Overall Winnings graph and with each other. But there is one rule: the more factors are taken into calculations of the graph, the more accurate it is in every current moment.
What is All-In EV?
All-In EV=[Final Pot - Investitions]*(Equity of hero in the moment of all-in)-[Investitions]*(100%-Equity of hero in the moment of all-in)
I don’t know who was the inventor, but the philosophy of this method is to run away from calculations of difficult situations and that is not what we strive for. Actually we have included All-In EV only for convenience of yours. All-in EV has two negative moments:
1. All-In EV takes value of overall winnings if there was no all-in in the hand, so it doesn’t provide any information about hands without all-in.
2. Imagine that you invest 90% of stack on flop, having 98% of equity, and go all-in on turn investing the rest 10% of stack with 0% to win. It is bad-beat, but All-In EV says it is a bad play, and that you invest 100% of money with 0% to win. But it is not so. Such example is rare, but anyway All-In EV doesn’t calculate expectation values of streets which forgo all-in.
But Street by Street EV solve this moments.
What is Street by Street EV?
Street by Street EV = Preflop EV + Flop EV + Turn EV + River EV
EV per street = [Money you can win]*(Probability of win) – [Money you can lose]*(Probability of loss) + [Money you can win when split the pot]*(Probability of tie)
It is based on Skansky bucks and calculates all streets separately making final EV of the hand balanced. It calculates showdown hands with and without all-in, so you get more information.
But there is still one factor that is not calculated.
What is Cooler Hunter EV?
The biggest pots you win and lose occur when poker room deals you cooler situations. You must have had sessions where you got several times KK against AA stacking preflop, then several sets against oversets, and some flushes against overflushes. Most of that times you and your opponents stepped on the gas both playing correctly, but it were exactly you who was doomed to failure. Such sessions are not a bad play of yours; they are just unlucky days, which could last for weeks.
And we have found a way how to take coolers under consideration, and how to calculate them.
The probability theory says that in future you will get inverse coolers accurate within every factor and will win (lose) back money you have lost (won). That’s why cooler EV = 0. Unfortunately, All-In EV as well as SbS EV, which calculations are based on equity can’t display the truth of coolers. They go down after described session, and rise only when inverse coolers happen. But you should know, that deviation distance could be too lengthy (200 000 hands, 300 000 hands and much more), while it is important to estimate your skill in comparison with battlefield of playing stakes right now.
Cooler Hunter Algorithm will help you! It is named so because of its target: based on Street by Street calculations it finds streets with coolers and kills their expectation value, making it equal to zero.
You are only to set the bottom level of coolers according to your feelings of played stakes. But be accurate! Set only certain, hundred-per-cent coolers. If you go lower, you will kill positive EV, which could be result of your skill. And don’t worry about coolers which are lower than the bottom level of certain coolers you set. Cooler Hunter EV is a modified Street by Street EV. So every situation which is under coolers bottom level you set is calculated in Cooler Hunter EV as it Street by Street method does. In other words, Cooler Hunter is a hybrid of Street by Street EV and cooler EV.
What is Bad/Delicate Play filter?
Imagine that you value-bet with nut-flush on 4-flush board against weak player and get call with fifth flush. Should it be a cooler, if you set to calculate clashes of flush+ combinations as coolers? No. You have collected value and realized your advantage, and this hand should be calculated in Cooler Hunter graph as positive EV. And there are a lot of other specified situations that can’t be named a cooler in spite of that they satisfy cooler filters on the right panel. But nothing was left to chance: Tick “Apply Bad/Delicate Play filter” and Cooler Hunter will keep expectation value of such streets alive, calculating them as Street by Street method does.
What about rake?
Cooler Hunter calculates all the graphs with subtraction of rake. As for Street by Street, we separate (spread) rake between streets with consideration to maximum rake. And we remember that cooler EV = 0 – rake, so Cooler Hunter EV is also ok.
Cooler Hunter could be confusing for beginner players as poker software. It is unusual jumping graph, which requires a distance of hands played, and what is more - understanding of your play, played stakes. But it creates a new picture of your poker career. It should open your eyes, because most of you trend to remember bad coolers and to forget hands you won just because your opponent had a hand a bit weaker than yours. Cut out coolers where you are just to bet and raise, and see how you play in difficult situations (it is one more thing that Cooler Hunter graph is about).
The current version of Cooler Hunter is a simple prototype. A lot of things are not realized, some bugs are not fixed and we need your bug reports, feedback and requests of future functional to continue. And ask any questions, if something is not clear, please.
- Cooler Hunter exports right panel settings into posted graph.
Example: http://pokerchups.com/ch/1c383cd30b7...0293adfecb7b18 - Fixed displaying graph in bb, wich had crushed in previous update.
- Some improvements in working with databases (now it should work more stable).
Cooler Hunter will update automatically.
If you have some problems with update, delete the current version from your computer and download a new one.
Some explanations.
I see that something is not clear for some of you, so I have to share my thoughts about this program, specifically about All-In EV, Street by Street EV and Cooler Hunter EV. All of these methods of luck estimation are mathematical, but the number of factors they calculate are different. Someday, graphs of All-In EV, Street by Street EV and Cooler Hunter EV will match with Overall Winnings graph and with each other. But there is one rule: the more factors are taken into calculations of the graph, the more accurate it is in every current moment.
What is All-In EV?
All-In EV=[Final Pot - Investitions]*(Equity of hero in the moment of all-in)-[Investitions]*(100%-Equity of hero in the moment of all-in)
I don’t know who was the inventor, but the philosophy of this method is to run away from calculations of difficult situations and that is not what we strive for. Actually we have included All-In EV only for convenience of yours. All-in EV has two negative moments:
1. All-In EV takes value of overall winnings if there was no all-in in the hand, so it doesn’t provide any information about hands without all-in.
2. Imagine that you invest 90% of stack on flop, having 98% of equity, and go all-in on turn investing the rest 10% of stack with 0% to win. It is bad-beat, but All-In EV says it is a bad play, and that you invest 100% of money with 0% to win. But it is not so. Such example is rare, but anyway All-In EV doesn’t calculate expectation values of streets which forgo all-in.
But Street by Street EV solve this moments.
What is Street by Street EV?
Street by Street EV = Preflop EV + Flop EV + Turn EV + River EV
EV per street = [Money you can win]*(Probability of win) – [Money you can lose]*(Probability of loss) + [Money you can win when split the pot]*(Probability of tie)
It is based on Skansky bucks and calculates all streets separately making final EV of the hand balanced. It calculates showdown hands with and without all-in, so you get more information.
But there is still one factor that is not calculated.
What is Cooler Hunter EV?
The biggest pots you win and lose occur when poker room deals you cooler situations. You must have had sessions where you got several times KK against AA stacking preflop, then several sets against oversets, and some flushes against overflushes. Most of that times you and your opponents stepped on the gas both playing correctly, but it were exactly you who was doomed to failure. Such sessions are not a bad play of yours; they are just unlucky days, which could last for weeks.
And we have found a way how to take coolers under consideration, and how to calculate them.
The probability theory says that in future you will get inverse coolers accurate within every factor and will win (lose) back money you have lost (won). That’s why cooler EV = 0. Unfortunately, All-In EV as well as SbS EV, which calculations are based on equity can’t display the truth of coolers. They go down after described session, and rise only when inverse coolers happen. But you should know, that deviation distance could be too lengthy (200 000 hands, 300 000 hands and much more), while it is important to estimate your skill in comparison with battlefield of playing stakes right now.
Cooler Hunter Algorithm will help you! It is named so because of its target: based on Street by Street calculations it finds streets with coolers and kills their expectation value, making it equal to zero.
You are only to set the bottom level of coolers according to your feelings of played stakes. But be accurate! Set only certain, hundred-per-cent coolers. If you go lower, you will kill positive EV, which could be result of your skill. And don’t worry about coolers which are lower than the bottom level of certain coolers you set. Cooler Hunter EV is a modified Street by Street EV. So every situation which is under coolers bottom level you set is calculated in Cooler Hunter EV as it Street by Street method does. In other words, Cooler Hunter is a hybrid of Street by Street EV and cooler EV.
What is Bad/Delicate Play filter?
Imagine that you value-bet with nut-flush on 4-flush board against weak player and get call with fifth flush. Should it be a cooler, if you set to calculate clashes of flush+ combinations as coolers? No. You have collected value and realized your advantage, and this hand should be calculated in Cooler Hunter graph as positive EV. And there are a lot of other specified situations that can’t be named a cooler in spite of that they satisfy cooler filters on the right panel. But nothing was left to chance: Tick “Apply Bad/Delicate Play filter” and Cooler Hunter will keep expectation value of such streets alive, calculating them as Street by Street method does.
What about rake?
Cooler Hunter calculates all the graphs with subtraction of rake. As for Street by Street, we separate (spread) rake between streets with consideration to maximum rake. And we remember that cooler EV = 0 – rake, so Cooler Hunter EV is also ok.
Cooler Hunter could be confusing for beginner players as poker software. It is unusual jumping graph, which requires a distance of hands played, and what is more - understanding of your play, played stakes. But it creates a new picture of your poker career. It should open your eyes, because most of you trend to remember bad coolers and to forget hands you won just because your opponent had a hand a bit weaker than yours. Cut out coolers where you are just to bet and raise, and see how you play in difficult situations (it is one more thing that Cooler Hunter graph is about).
The current version of Cooler Hunter is a simple prototype. A lot of things are not realized, some bugs are not fixed and we need your bug reports, feedback and requests of future functional to continue. And ask any questions, if something is not clear, please.
05-02-2011
, 10:50 AM
2. Select "Compatibility" tab and make changes like it shown here:
3. Press OK. And try to run Cooler Hunter again.
It should help.
Are there any other Windows 7 64bit users having the same problem?
05-06-2011
, 08:09 AM
05-06-2011
, 11:14 AM
05-06-2011
, 08:09 PM
05-09-2011
, 09:37 AM
Currently not. =(
05-09-2011
, 10:20 AM