Quote:
Originally Posted by Des_Astar
Is there any way to figure out how many matches of 3max lottery SNGs we need to play to estimate our true ROI/hourly rate using this tool?
There's a bit of trial and error involved.
First pin down your question to something like, after how many games will I know with 99% certainty my true ROI is no higher than 1% more than my results and with 99% certainty my true ROI is no lower than 1% less than my results? (The more certain and smaller plus/minus range you ask about, the more games will be needed.)
Let's assume your results are 2.6% ROI.
Now run sims with ROI 3.6% (adjust the Player Finish Distribution until you get the desired Expected ROI), increasing the number of games until you get the line
Code:
1% had ROI below 2.6%
(or at least something very close to 2.6%).
So after 1 million games, if your results are 2.6% ROI, there is about 1% chance that your true ROI is 3.6% or more. (Because if your true ROI was 3.6% or more, these simulations imply there's only a 1% chance you would see an actual result of 2.6% ROI.)
Then run sims with ROI 1.6%, increasing the number of games until you get the line
Code:
99% had ROI below 2.6%
(or at least something very close to 2.6%).
So after 1.25 million games, if your results are 2.6% ROI, there is about 1% chance that your true ROI is 1.6% or lower.
The larger number of games from these two is your answer. (They will probably be relatively close to the same.) So about 1.25 million games for this example.