Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Cut
Thanks for the questions papaisA. Unfortunately I can't offer much in the way of solid answers when it comes to cEV for spins. One point I will make is that the SwongSim cEV simulations are better viewed as a starting point or bound on the cEV swings that can happen in reality.
For example, one simplifying assumption in the simulations is that your actual edge (expressed in cEV) is the same for each and every game. In reality your edge varies due to opponent skill and how well you are playing at the time.
that's good point that estimated edge and reality can be different due to external factors which you mentioned. so is always good to be self-aware and and stop playing when we deviating from our standard games. however is not cEV number which we introduce into SwongSwim the sum of all factors, which include our deviation from our standard games?
as well, concerning your statement:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Cut
I've seen real-life result graphs of 70+ cEV over tens of thousands of games that had multiple break-even stretches of like 2k games, which would be very rare in SwongSim simulated results.
if we take for example 7$ spins on .eu and 70cEV, we can see that about 40% of player will have break even stretch of about 2K games in next 10K games. so probability of two 10K games interval will be 0.4x0.4=0.16% ? which means that 16% of players multiple break-even stretches of like 2k games on sample of 20K games? which is imo not that infrequent.
correct me if I am wrong as I am really not familiar with statistics. probably my calculation are over simplified and there is some other factors which need to be taken into account.
At the same time, taking advantage of the opportunity, I would also like to ask you for advice on bankroll management. I am not math geek, so I use your software (which is great, thank you!) for estimation of my bankroll needed. For purpose of calculation, let's say I have 70cEV on 7$ ps.eu and rb is 4%. I play 4000 games a month and my cost of living is about 600$ per months. I have money aside for next 3 months. assuming that I am willing to accept RoR 1%, is about 120 buy-ins should be enough to overcome variance in next three months according to below data?:
Code:
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Effective Specified Simulation
Place Finish Distribution Finish Distribution
1 3,8E-05% 3,3E-05%
2 3,19688E-05% 5,8E-05%
3 3,00312E-05% 4,2E-05%
4 0,00114% 0,001108%
5 0,000959064% 0,001058%
6 0,000900936% 0,000742%
7 0,00285% 0,003042%
8 0,00239766% 0,002583%
9 0,00225234% 0,002167%
10 0,038% 0,037692%
11 0,19% 0,191008%
12 2,85% 2,856783%
13 7,581228% 7,582133%
14 27,336744% 27,344433%
ITM 38,006572% 38,022883%
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1000 simulations of 12000 games
Expected ROI (with rakeback/bonus/award): 6,27% (752 Buyins)
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99% had ROI below 12,72% (1527 Buyins)
97.5% had ROI below 10,00% (1201 Buyins)
95% had ROI below 9,14% (1097 Buyins)
90% had ROI below 8,25% (991 Buyins)
80% had ROI below 7,35% (883 Buyins)
70% had ROI below 6,80% (816 Buyins)
60% had ROI below 6,30% (757 Buyins)
50% had ROI below 5,82% (699 Buyins)
40% had ROI below 5,45% (655 Buyins)
30% had ROI below 5,02% (603 Buyins)
20% had ROI below 4,60% (553 Buyins)
10% had ROI below 3,80% (457 Buyins)
5% had ROI below 3,27% (393 Buyins)
2.5% had ROI below 2,78% (334 Buyins)
1% had ROI below 2,39% (287 Buyins)
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99% had a downswing greater than 52 buyins
97.5% had a downswing greater than 55 buyins
95% had a downswing greater than 59 buyins
90% had a downswing greater than 63 buyins
80% had a downswing greater than 69 buyins
70% had a downswing greater than 75 buyins
60% had a downswing greater than 80 buyins
50% had a downswing greater than 85 buyins
40% had a downswing greater than 91 buyins
30% had a downswing greater than 99 buyins
20% had a downswing greater than 108 buyins
10% had a downswing greater than 123 buyins
5% had a downswing greater than 137 buyins
2.5% had a downswing greater than 148 buyins
1% had a downswing greater than 165 buyins
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99% had a low point lower than 0 buyins
97.5% had a low point lower than 0 buyins
95% had a low point lower than -1 buyins
90% had a low point lower than -2 buyins
80% had a low point lower than -4 buyins
70% had a low point lower than -7 buyins
60% had a low point lower than -11 buyins
50% had a low point lower than -15 buyins
40% had a low point lower than -20 buyins
30% had a low point lower than -28 buyins
20% had a low point lower than -38 buyins
10% had a low point lower than -52 buyins
5% had a low point lower than -70 buyins
2.5% had a low point lower than -88 buyins
1% had a low point lower than -105 buyins
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99% had a breakeven stretch longer than 747 games
97.5% had a breakeven stretch longer than 819 games
95% had a breakeven stretch longer than 893 games
90% had a breakeven stretch longer than 1028 games
80% had a breakeven stretch longer than 1206 games
70% had a breakeven stretch longer than 1370 games
60% had a breakeven stretch longer than 1540 games
50% had a breakeven stretch longer than 1740 games
40% had a breakeven stretch longer than 1978 games
30% had a breakeven stretch longer than 2234 games
20% had a breakeven stretch longer than 2596 games
10% had a breakeven stretch longer than 3201 games
5% had a breakeven stretch longer than 3774 games
2.5% had a breakeven stretch longer than 4407 games
1% had a breakeven stretch longer than 5364 games
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as well, if I read the data correctly:
Code:
1% had ROI below 2,39% (287 Buyins)
there ts =<1% of chance that I will not make at least 287BI in next 12K games (3 months play), so I am relatively safe, to be, financially, in three months form now, at least in the same situation as I am right now after deducting my cost of living for next three months?
I hope my comment is not too inconsistent or unclear as English is not my native language. I will be playing for a living for next couple of months and wish to finally put my finance in order as until now I was messing too much with it and it refrained me a lot from moving up in stake as quickly as I would like. So I will much appreciated any advice concerning proper BR management for spins.