Hi guys.
I am playing full-time twisters in ipoker and I am using SwongSim to estimate variance's effect on my game. I would like to thank you for this tool first of all.
The calculator's result is a projection of your overall probable outcomes based on your skill and the type of game you are playing. However, it does not distinguish between bad luck in card distribution, bad luck in hitting good multipliers and bad luck in all-in situations. (since I am constantly running below EV close to the low 5% of the distribution for 20k+ games, I need some more details to explain this bad luck to myself to stay focused and motivated
)
-By counting how many 100x and 1000x I have played I can somehow estimate the bad luck in lottery.
-By counting the all-in won chips and comparing it to the ev all-in chips I can be quite close in estimating the bad luck in all in situations.
My problem is that I have no idea how to estimate how big is the effect of bad card distribution and more specifically how much it does effect my cev. If for example my actual cev is 50, does it make sense for it to be 25 for lets say 2,000 games say because of bad card distribution?
I would be really happy if a more experienced player could give some actual figures of bad periods and how much they effected his cev temporally.
It is very important not to question your skill and stay motivated that you are playing fine and it is very tough when the only indicator that reflects your skill turns downwards..