ny jet,
I just got a couple questions..
So I was playing around with the SSS calculator and wanted to personally test the info it was telling me by manually plugging a certain situation into the FE equation. So I wanted to test the borderline hands it said to fold/jam with. Here is the scenario I ran. We are in BB, 40BB effective, facing an UTG minraise from a 13.1% range. I found the optimal calling range for villain if we shoved, and here is a screenshot of the scenario plugged in in the SSS calculator.
So I tested AKo and it did turn out to be a +EV jam which would show +1.15BB in EV.
I then decided to test TT since it was a fold according to the chart and it had the highest equity vs villain's calling range vs all the other hands we should be folding.
TT has 41.27% equity, and villain's equity is 58.73%
Fold Equity Equation
EV = XP+(1-X)(WH-LV)
where,
X = folding frequency
P = pot size
W = amount won
H = our equity
L = amount lost
V = opponent's equity
[99+, AQs, AKo] makes up 4.2% of hands - meaning our FE is (13.1-4.2)/13.1 OR 67.94%
When we shove, we risk 39BB to win the pot of 3.5BB.
When we shove and get called and win, we win 3.5BB from the pot and 39BB from villain for 42.5BB total.
When we shove and get called and lose, we lose 39BB.
So,
EV = XP+(1-X)(WH-LV)
EV = (.6794)(3.5)+(1-.6794)[(42.5)(.4127)-(39)(.5873)]
EV = 2.3779 + (0.3206) [ 17.54 - 22.9 ]
EV = 2.3779 + (0.3206)(-5.36)
EV = 2.3779 - 1.72
EV = +0.66BB
So according to this (and I double checked my math - you're welcome to as well), we CAN shove TT for +EV in this situation. The SSS calculator says we can't.
I also wonder how and why 99+, AQs+, AKo is the optimal calling range for villain (not for just this hand specifically - but how do you determine what the optimal calling range is in a situation like this?) And does this mean that if we min open UTG and it folds to BB and he shoves, and he's an unknown, we should be calling with this range until we get more info on villain and then adjust it accordingly?
Thanks!