Quote:
How can it be that when I give OOP the option to lead flop (and change nothing else) I see a decrease in his EV of almost 1bb/100? I don't see how having an extra option should ever be detrimental, since if checking is higher EV then the solver should figure that out on its own, no?
Unfortunately this is not that simple. This being complicated is the reason I was very reluctant to add rake and I don't really want to add ICM. Anyway, here are some facts:
1)In HU zero-sum game it's guaranteed that every equilibrium has the same EV. Playing an equilibrium strategy guarantees you won't lose. Even if there is more than one equilibrium every one of them is as good (guarantees not losing).
2)In HU non-zero sum game it's no longer true - there could be many equilibria with different payoffs. This means that an equilibrium in non-zero sum game is not that valuable strategy. It's still true that no player can improve in an equilibrium but still there might be more states like that, some terrible for IP player, some terrible for IP player, some somewhere in the middle
3)Introducing rake (or ICM) makes the game non-zero sum.
4)The hope is that it doesn't matter that much and all the equilibria are kinda close to each other, unfortunately especially with big rake (or very steep ICM adjustments) the hope is just that: hope.
5)Your care has a very steep rake (probably trying to simulate 0.5/1$ game)
6)It's likely that the solver finds a different equilibrium if the OOP bet is disabled. There is very little we can do about it, methods for finding all equilibria are unknown.
Notice that if you disable rake, everything is back to normal:
EV with OOP lead on the flop enabled:
running time: 131.860
EV OOP: 30.824
EV IP: 29.176
OOP's MES: 30.887
IP's MES: 29.233
Exploitable for: 0.060
SOLVER: stopped (requested)
EV with OOP bet on the flop disabled:
SOLVER: stopped (requested)
Results:
EV OOP: 30.635
EV IP: 29.365
OOP's MES: 30.689
IP's MES: 29.417
Exploitable for: 0.053
While the concept of having multiple equilibria (and thus lack of something you could call "GTO") in non-zero sum games is a difficult one I would like to give one toy example:
-pot is 10 chips
-stacks are 100 chips
-both players have AA only, it's preflop and we play fold or shove
-it's tournament, 200 chips are worth 180 in utility (typical ICM considerations, similar situation to big rake), 100 chips are worth 100 in utility
-for simplicty assume 110 chips are worth 110 in utility
-OOP is first to act
Imagine two set of strategies the players have:
a)OOP always shoves and IP always folds
This is an equilibrium because calling a shove to flip is -EV in ICM settings so IP can't improve. OOP ends up with a stack worth 110 utility every time, IP ends up with 100 utility.
b)OOP always folds but IP would spit call every shove
This is an equilibrium as OOP can't improve (shoving would trigger a spite call and both players would lose). OOP ends up with 100 utility and IP ends up with 110 utility
Both sets of strategies are equilibrium but EVs vary a lot.
A game with rake is full of those situations on the river. You may make just profitable bluff which can't be called because of rake, on the other hand if your opponent is already calling (their strategy is to call too much) you can't even make marginal value bets because you would lose w/e you gain to rake. This may happen in many places in the tree resulting in large number of possible equilibria.
It is quite likely that removing an option just triggers the solver to find a different one as the OOP player is quicker to "take the territory" faster (that is start making plays, the opponent can't defend against because of rake).
This is what math is, there is very little we can do about it unfortunately as we can't find every single possible equilibrium. I hope that makes sense and explains my skepticism about introducing rake/ICM to the solver.
Notice that it's quite likely that all the sensible equilibria are close to each other. In your case the difference is only 0.84bb/100. It would probably be way less in higher stakes games where rake is a smaller factor.
Last edited by punter11235; 03-07-2016 at 08:40 PM.