Quote:
Originally Posted by w4llace
nice peace of software. I am currently testing the trial version.
How it comes that it calculates 14,97% to flop a set in the oranges 6plus calculator and everywhere in the Internet you can read it's about 17-18% to flop a set in Shortdeck Poker?
Thanks for the feedback!
I found a lot of obvious mistakes on very respected poker resources, because in some cases it can be proved manually using simple combinatorics.
Talking about set in Oranges 6Plus Calculator...
Lets suppose you selected AA:
As you noticed AA flops a set 14,97%
If you select statistics from set and higher:
you will get 17,65% and it is close to what you found.
In case of set it can be proved manually that 14,97% is correct value:
If 2 aces are selected, then there are 34 cards left in the deck.
1) number of possible flops - C(34,3) = 5984.
2) Lets calculate number of all possible flops Ax R1x R2x where R1 and R2 are not the same.
3) choose any 2 from 8 different ranks (K, Q, J, ... ,6) - C(8, 2) = 28
If ranks are the same it will be full house.
4) all possible combinations of R1x R2x: C(8, 2) * 4 * 4 = 28 * 16 = 448.
5) if two aces were seleted then only 2 remains in deck. Then:
number of all possible Ax R1x R2x flops: 448 * 2 = 896.
So we get that 2 Aces flops set in
896/5984 = 0,14973... = 14,97%
Hope it helps.