Quote:
Originally Posted by Pickaface
CO's equity is 54.9% and tie 4.92% when I hover over call on Co on the river.
I'll leave out the ties. In cash games they're almost irrelevant. They do however matter greatly in tournament calculations. Anyhow, that's not relevant here.
Ok, the SB bets 6.30. Effective stacks are $4.74.
The SB's EV
In 1.61% of the cases he'll win the $7.5 pot.
EV=1.61%*7.5=0.12075
In 98.4% of the cases he'll win 4.74+7.5 in (100%-54.9%=)45.1%.
EV=98.4%*(4.74+7.5)*45.1%=5.4319
In 98.4% of the cases he'll lose 4.74 in 54.9%.
EV=98.4%*-4.74*54.9%=-2.5606
EV for the sb: 0.12075+5.4319-2.5606=$2.99.
The BB's EV
The cutoff folds in 1.61% of the cases. He will "win" $0, since he folded.
EV=0.
The cutoff calls in 98.4% of the cases. He will win 54.9% of pots and will get 7.5+4.74.
EV=98.4%*(7.5+4.74)*54.9%=6.6122
The cutoff calls in 98.4% of the cases. He will lose 45.1% of pots and will lose 4.74.
EV=98.4%*-4.74*45.1%=-2.1035
EV for the cutoff: 6.6122-2.1035=4.51.
If we now add up these EVs we'll get $2.99+$4.51=$7.5.
There's about a zillion opportunities to make a mistake in the above, but since the numbers add up, it appears I've made no mistakes. Or got very lucky