Quote:
Originally Posted by WillyT
edit: if you want to see this just put two hand conditions under utg's flop bet. first hand condition being ">=set" and second hand condition being "all hands".
Did that and I now see the two
>= set conditions displaying identical probabilities.
I still have a question though about the actual result: 12.5%, stddev .02% (just recalculated with a higher iteration number that gave stddev .02%)
Isn't the probability of missing a set on the flop
48*47*46/(50*49*48) ==> 88.25%
so the probability of hitting a set (or a boat, which is excluded from the probability of missing a set)
1 - 88.25% ==> 11.75%?
There is about 30 std devs difference between 12.4% and 11.75%. What else am I calculating wrong here?
I'm pretty sure my calculation above for "not hitting a set" includes "not hitting a boat, not hitting quads" and neither a flush or straight is possible on the flop with both players having PP.
Are you using a high quality RNG? Stupid question (of course you are) but I clutching at straws here until the next enlightening post