Quote:
Originally Posted by M_Acevedo
Say you are getting 20% pot odds to call a minrase from the BB, given the chips you win are worth less than the chips you invest you need extra equity to make a profitable call, so if for example risk premium is 2.5% I'd need hands with minimum 22.5% equity to see the flop profitable, then post flop it works similar, if villain bets pot on the flop I'd need 33% equity to continue ev
In postflop play, when dealing with spots where there's still play left after reacting to a bet, it's not as straightforward to just look at equity, given that implied odds and reverse implied odds are involved. I really get the impression that risk premium would only apply to spots where you can only call an all-in or fold. When dealing with deeper stacks, you can't just take your equity and add a risk premium to it. Admittedly I have never looked into this, nor do I have the time at the moment, but I'm fairly certain that if you apply the GTO solver to a tournament spot, then you'll find that optimal play is actually different.
For example, see below a graph that plots EV versus equity for a GTO solution in a cash game where a player is faced with a $20 bet in a $30 pot, giving him 2.5:1 odds (or in other words requiring 28.5% equity if this were an all-in bet). However, stacks are actually deeper here, and it appears that hands only become playable at an equity of around 43% (see the red arrow). However, there's no absolutes here, given that the red circle shows a group of hands with a lower equity that seem playable as well. These tend to be drawing hands. However, there's hands with the same and even higher equity that are clear folds. These tend to be one-pair type hands. If stacks are deeper, then drawing hands gain in strength due to their implied odds, and top pair hands reduce in strength, due to their reverse implied odds. So, as stacks deepen, things become more complex and all rules regarding equity are out the window.
On the other hand, see below for the same spot, only now the bet of $20 is an all-in bet. In this particular case rules regarding equity (and possibly risk premiums) do apply. The cutoff where hands become profitable is indeed 28.6%.
For what it's worth, here is the same spot, but now in a tournament.
Here, the cutoff is at 32.6%, meaning that the risk premium would be 4%.
Last edited by scylla; 04-05-2017 at 04:21 PM.