I could use some advice on how to model a flop situation. Thanks in advance.
Limit Holdem, 6max, 0.5/1
Hero posts SB 0.25 BB, BB posts BB 0.5 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 0.75 BB) Hero has 9
9
fold,
MP raises to 1 BB,
CO raises to 1.5 BB,
fold,
Hero raises to 2 BB,
fold,
MP calls 1 BB, CO calls 0.5 BB
Flop: (6.5 BB, 3 players) J
7
K
Hero?
I'm trying to model whether it would be better for hero to check or bet in the above hand. I've set up the tree for the flop actions. I'm not sure how to most efficiently model the turn though.
Let's assume that Hero will only continue on the turn if he hits a set. As this will only happen 4% of the time, I don't want to go through all the trouble of modelling all possible actions. But the problem with putting a "Hero checkdown" option on the turn is that Hero has about 11% equity on the turn even after being raised on the flop, which is significant given the size of the pot. Hero has even more equity on the turn when he check/calls the flop for one bet. But I don't think it's realistic to assume that Hero will be able to get to showdown without facing further action.
So given all that, what would be the best way of modelling the turn?
Last edited by Rooksx; 06-01-2013 at 08:06 AM.