Hey
Spoke about BB defends vs a BTN minraise recently.
So, we're getting 3.5:1 pre meaning anytime we think we can win the pot >22% of the time we call right?
I have following assumptions for BTN:
- open 45%
- 4b 12ish% of the time. AK, JJ+ for the value part.
- c3bet: 40ish%
http://i.imgur.com/FUrHck4.png
- folds the rest : so about 50%
I know theres like a tremendous amount of postflop information i didnt even mention but im trying to figure out a range to defend
- my 3bets
- my call
How do you model that?
Like i first tried to run a sim with the following requirements:
- midpair+
- fd
- gutshot+ using both cards
and pick up all the hands to see if % > 22% but i end up with 3betting 30% of the time like any Ax, KT+, 22+
and defending K4+, Q4+, J4+, etc
Seems v v loose to me.
How can we account for postflop oop play? maybe id need hands flopping stronger? more often like >30%?
What and how do you determine those factors.