Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
I'm lost. I thought the formula for finding out if a c bet is originally l profitable is = your bet/pot + your bet. I.e. pot is $10, you bet $5 ---> 5/15 = 33%, so as long as villain folds at least 33% of the time our c bet is profitable, no?
Let's define:
Size of the pot:
P
CBet size:
C
Chance of fold:
F
Chance of not-fold:
1-F
The breakeven point will be:
P*F - C*(1-F) = 0
or, in other words
P*F = C*(1-F)
In the above example I stated that if villain folds 33% of the time, then the cbet would need to be 50% of the pot.
We can see that by re-writing the formula, using F = 0.33:
C = P*F/(1-F) = P * 0.33 / 0.66 = P * 0.5
So basically, the general forumula is
P*F = C*(1-F).
You can use it to either figure out the cbet size (provided that F is known):
C=P*F/(1-F)
or the required chance of getting villain to fold (provided that the cbet size is known):
F = C/(P+C)
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
I have a range saved for population loose passive for LLSNL. So I was saying, if I'm up against two villains that I'm assigning that range to, and say that range will fold a flop 60% of the time, to find the break even c bet bluff size wouldn't we do .6*.6 = .36 ------> they will both completely wiff the flop and be unable to continue 36% of the time? So we choose a size of 36% pot for the break even point?
If both players have a chance of 60% of missing, then the chance of both players missing is indeed 36%. However, this does not affect the cbet size. The cbet size is only influenced by the chance of villain missing and folding to a bet (in the event of you yourself holding no hand).
The math can be quite complex, but in this simplified scenario the above formulas apply. Please do note though that the above assumes you holding a hand with no draws or showdown value. In reality marginal showdown value, draws that improve your hand, bluffs, re-bluffs, etc will factor in as well. Should you want to take a deeper look into such scenarios, then please consider using a GTO solver, such as for example our own GTO solver GTO+.