Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
Math question: say I put two villains on identical ranges, and that range misses particular flop 60% of the time, then I do .6 * .6 = .36 ---> I need to choose a c bet size that has to work 36% of the time or less to be profitable, right?
I assume that you're referring to an artificial situation?
Namely, villain will fold to a cbet 60% of the time. Assuming you hold nothing and villain will immediately give up after your cbet, how big should your cbet C be compared to the pot P?
In 60% of the cases you will win the pot P.
In 40% you will lose your cbet C.
The breakeven point will be at 60%*P - 40%*C = 0.
Or, in other words, C = 60/40 * P = 3 / 2 * P
So in this artificial spot, you will make a profit if your cbet is smaller than 150% of the pot.
If villain folds much less often, for example only 33% of the time, then it will be C = 33 / 66 = 50% P.
Or in other words, if villain folds 33% of the time, then the cbet needs to be 50% of the pot to break even.
Last edited by scylla; 01-02-2020 at 12:00 PM.