Quote:
Originally Posted by insyder19
Thanks Fozzy, will try it out later and let you know if I have further questions.
One more question though I have is, can't you guys change the way HEM calculates EV? For example, if I 4bet and get 90% of my stack in preflop with 70% equity and the remaining 10% of my stack with 10% equity, HEM will calculate that I should have only won 10% of the total pot. Instead, it should be: 0.9*0.7+0.1*0.1
And then, let's say I see the flop multiway but fold and the other two players go all in. HEM3 won't show the equity I had on the flop vs the other two players, because I didn't go all in. However, I would like to see that, can that be adjusted anywhere?
The first thing I need to mention is that HM3 calculates EV differently than HM2 did. We now use the PT4 methodology.
In a hand where a player is all-in preflop, but other players are not, net adjusted results are not calculated. When one player is an all-in preflop and other players are not, then they have the option to act postflop and this means that sometimes one of them will fold. Having the option to fold after another street is dealt means that in the long run there will be more strong hands which get to showdown and less weak hands. If we were to calculate net adjusted results in hands like this it would introduce a systematic bias (because there will be more known strong hands) so we exclude all hands like this from net adjusted calculations.
EV is not my best subject but I have an old canned reply with a link to a forum thread about it and some quotes and cliff notes about why Street by Street EV is not something we do:
Why "EV by street" is a bad thing:
Best explanation here -
http://forums.holdemmanager.com/3rd-...er-sect-7.html
Summary of that thread:
Example: - you have AA, you raise to 80% of your stack, donkey calls, flop comes K83 rainbow.
- you then go all-in, no matter the flop, because you're committed.
- out of 100 times, 88 times donkey folds.
- 12 times donkeys calls with a set (33/88/KK).
What shall EV by street bogusly do? It shall do no computations for the 88 times where donkey folded--> "no more calculation".
What shall EV by street do the 12 times where donkey calls with a set? "Show that donkey sucked out and that you got unlucky".
So although you ran obviously uber-good by having donkey folding 88 times out of 100. EV by street focuses on the 12 times where donkey hit his set and tells that you're running below EV.
This is a well-known gambler fallacy. And this is why "EV by street" is completely bogus and should not be implemented.
Note: Tristanblue writes "it's precisely because EV by street does nothing to your adjusted-graph on these cases where the opponent folded that it is completely bogus."
But what if your opponent never folds? Suppose there are two players A and B.
Player A has AA, B has KK. (both have $100 stacks). They commit half their stack preflop and the flop comes AK6. Player B (KK has 1 "out") to win the hand.
If I would play this hand I would always make sure I'm allin on the turn.
However Player X always commits the rest of his stack on the flop and turn *except for one dollar*. And he commits on the river.
Of course, 4% of the time, the rivercard is the case King. Player X's EV Diff is always 0.
My EV Diff is -$4 (96 out of 100 times) and +$96 (4 out of 100 times)
So our EV graph actually looks the same after 100 of these hands.
Fozzy71
Customer Support