Quote:
Originally Posted by gball
Sorry if this has been covered in a manual somewhere, but the EV of a line seems to fluctuate a lot between calculations. Like, I have this one hand and trying to see what my EV is at a certain point, and it fluctuates between -10 and +15. Any tips on getting more accurate results, but still maintaining sane performance levels, say, 30 seconds per run?
Ok, e-mail received.
Here's the reason for the problem.
You've sent me the following setup, where there's a large fluctuation in the EV in the decision with the note attached to it.
When I switch to absolute mode the cause of the problem becomes apprarent. Of the 100k runs only 0.03% or 30 simulations actually make it to that part of the tree (see red circled part).
The cause for this is to be found in the blue circled decision. Only 0.32% of the simulations make it past that point because only 76s is considered for the bb's range, while he folds the remaining 99.68% of hands. That means that 99.68% of the 100k simulations are folded.
As you may recall, in a player's first decision in a hand his range is determined. This means that you don't need to assign an action to all of the bb's hands here, you can just leave out the fold and his range will be 76s. Now, all 100k simulations will continue past this point as opposed to only about 320 of them.
If you remove the fold action and recompute you'll find that the earlier fluctuation is substantially reduced. If you need more accuracy, just go to "options->run settings "and increase the number of runs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gball
Thanks, I sent the hand file. I have "Use speedup" and "Mathematical solution" checked in the "Math engine" menu. When I perform EV run, the progress bar dialog still says "Monte Carlo mode" though if that matters.
Yes, math mode only applies if at least the flop is known ór if all the action is preflop. Also, it must be HU. Since the flop is unknown, monte carlo mode is used.
Last edited by scylla; 05-21-2009 at 05:23 PM.