Quote:
Originally Posted by x64asm
Hi I was playing around with EV-calculations and CREV came with a strange result.
EV of CO if he calls: +0.88
But if I calculate it by hand then I get this:
21,10% of the time the CO will win a $7.13 pot.
78.9% of the time the CO will lose $2.94 if he calls the all-in.
So the EV formular should be:
(0,211*7,13)+(0,789 * (-2,94) )
= 1,50443 + (-2,31966)
= -0,81523
In this case the CO would have a negative EV instead of the +0.88 EV.
Or does CREV include also results from preflop, flop and turn into the river all-in calculation?
This would be the case if Cutoff called with all of his range. However, he actually only calls with the strongest 42.1% of his range, while folding his weaker hands.
In order to carry out this calculation we will need to know what Cutoff's equity is when he calls. Unfortunately I can't tell this information from the screenshot, however, you should be able to get it if you mouse over the "Call" action. The equity is in one of the top lines in the popup. For the moment though, let's just call this equity X.
The EV for calling now becomes:
EVcall = (X*7,13)+((1-X)*(-2,94))
The EV for folding is 0 by definition:
Evfold = 0.
And if we enter the frequencies, the total EV will be:
EV = 42.1%*EVcall + 57.9%*EVfold = 42.1%*EVcall = (X*7,13+(1-X)*-2,94)*42.1%
Unless I made a typo, the equity for calling should turn out to be about 50%.