Hello. I just wanted to make some rather easy calculations and found out that CRev yields results that seem wrong for me.
What i'm trying to do is model a situation when i steal on the button having 100bb stack and small blind, which has 40bb stack, 3bets me. I want to know what range i can profitably shove considering that i know what range sb is calling and what range he's folding. So i made this tree
computed it and it shows that it's +ev to shove these hands:
But the thing is, it must be wrong! E.g., it shows that ev for shoving K5s is -0.13. But let's calculate it manually. According to this formula:
EVofshove = x*Pot + (1-x)[WinningAmount*P - LosingAmount*(1-P)]
where
x - percentage of times sb folds (which is 55.6%)
Pot - pot after sb 3bets (which is 9$)
P - our chance to win when sb calls our shove (K5s has 33.16% equity vs sb's calling range)
WinningAmount - amount of money we win when we shove and sb calls (which is 9$ pot + 38$ that we shove over our initial 2$ bet = 47$)
LosingAmount - amount of money we lose when we shove and sb calls (which is 38$)
so, EVofshove = 0.556*9 + (1-0.556)[47*0.3316 - 38*(1-0.3316)] = 0.647
This number doesn't match -0.13, which CRev gives us.
And according to this formula, the +ev range of shoving should be this:
By the way, if i calculate the ev for this shove (with K5s) in CRev's shoving math tool, it shows ev of 0.4093$, which matches neither CRev's -0.13$ ev nor my manually calculated +0.647$.
Maybe i'm doing something wrong?
I'll mail you my CRev file in advance in case you need it.
Last edited by rrraaaa; 06-01-2013 at 06:36 AM.