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A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages

01-16-2016 , 10:59 PM
Hello Marketplace investors,

I decided to track one marketplace reg's packages that he offers in this sub-forum. I will not outright name him in this thread but I am sure it is extremely easy to find out who this seller is with little to no research. The tracking I have completed includes 125 online only packages offered by this marketplace reg. The dates of the packages range from April 2015 through January 2016.

Below are two screenshots of an excel spreadsheet created to track this seller's results:





Some interesting statistics to learn from this report:

Sample Size of Packages Tracked - 125
Total Buyins - $544,898.40
Weighted Average Markup Charged to Marketplace - $13.92% - "not bad, seems reasonable!", says some of you investors!
Total Returns - $606,076.16 wowzers!
Net Profit at Table - $61,177.76 This seller is a winner at the tables!
Seller's Financial Investment - $299,542.63
Seller's Financial Share of Returns - $368,092.74
Seller's Net Profit - $68,550.11 Go seller!
Seller's ROI (based on his share of buyins/returns) - 22.88%
Investors' Financial Investment - $245,355.77 man... you marketplace regs are RICH!
Investors' Financial Share of Returns - $237.983.42 wait a second... we invested more than this... dafuq?
Investors' Net Loss - $7,372.35
Investors' ROI - negative 3.00%
Markup Paid to Seller - $34,155.38 - dayum, he's gettin' rich!
Seller's Markup Adjusted ROI - 34.29% - no wonder why he's selling packs in the marketplace!

Seller's TOTAL Profit - $102,705.49
Investors' TOTAL Loss - $7,372.35

Interesting comment to add. This seller abruptly stopped selling action to the the sunday warmup and sunday million and several other "higher value MTTs" in October 2015. He continues to consistently sell out even though investors [as a whole] have not made a penny in his last 125 marketplace listed packages while he's made $100K+. Very interesting if you ask me!

P.S. If anyone wants the actual spreadsheet for whatever purpose, feel free to PM me your email address!

Last edited by Aznpowr11; 01-16-2016 at 11:20 PM.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-16-2016 , 11:04 PM
Nice read, was always wondering if anyone has compiled and enter these data. Would be nice to see a bigger sample size but results probably wouldn't be that far off in general. I think I know who this seller is :P
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-16-2016 , 11:10 PM
thanks for sharing....
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-16-2016 , 11:14 PM
wow very nice work.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-16-2016 , 11:27 PM
Azn can you rerun this spreadsheet assuming the same % (say 50) was sold to investors in each pack?
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-16-2016 , 11:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RAYRAYRAYRAY
Azn can you rerun this spreadsheet assuming the same % (say 50) was sold to investors in each pack?
50%

A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-16-2016 , 11:38 PM
ty
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-16-2016 , 11:56 PM
I had similar conclusions when I recently tracked this players numbers.
I think it's a problem all throughout the MP, where a package's true ROI<0.
There are often times when higher value tournaments are omitted.

I am attempting to only purchase packages where the player sells his entire action and/or are selling for a few packages where they are obviously shot taking.


In saying that, I sometimes use the MP to have a punt where it's slightly -EV as well.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 12:06 AM
This is impressive, well done. I (and likely many other current/future investors) can def learn a lot from this.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 12:35 AM
Good post AZN thats some impressive dedication to not seeing a chosen dozen or so exploit the MP in a premeditated way. Has annoyed me for years when its as hard as ever to make a living from poker that half the MP regs only sell for their lowest roi games to print money from markup while keeping all their action in games still with high attainable roi's.


More fool the regs who when they actually sell are fair and try and make it a mutually benefitial partnership i guess. Leaving money on the table.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 01:17 AM
I checked a bit more, and at the face of it, it appears to be good post by azn, but it also omits the said players bigger wins that he shared with the MP.

The said player apparently won over 100K for mp in early april itself, and it appears looking at the sheet that those are not included. AZN has recorded the sheet from 17th april and hence it omits 3 big scores (21K, 35K, 29K) at pokerstars from 1st April to 15th April, 1 big score (27K) at ftp in March

And this changes the scenario dynamically, not sure what azn's agenda here is ? This is not a fair assessment after all.

PS: I do still think seller is now selling -EV games

Last edited by Smart_Guy; 01-17-2016 at 01:33 AM.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 01:29 AM
interesting read ty for posting
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 01:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smart_Guy
I checked a bit more, and at the face of it, it appears to be good post by azn, but it also omits the said players bigger wins that he shared with the MP.

The said player apparently won over 100K for mp in early april itself, and it appears looking at the sheet that those are not included. AZN has recorded the sheet from 17th april and hence it omits 3 big scores (21K, 35K, 29K) at pokerstars from 1st April to 15th April, 1 big score (27K) at ftp in March

And this changes the scenario dynamically, not sure what azn's agenda here is ? This is not a fair assessment after all.

PS: I do still think seller is now selling -EV games
I have no hidden agenda. I searched the marketplace reg's "find threads started by XXXXX" and went as far back as I could. If you can share how I can easily find his marketplace threads from 1/1/2015 to when my list starts (4/16/2015), I'd be more than happy to generate the full report for the calendar year of 2015. I also did not claim a 125 package sample was sufficient or insufficient to make concrete conclusions on this seller (but we have to start somewhere and a sample of 125 is probably larger than almost any other seller on this forum). I simply stated the statistics I generated (with a sprinkle of lol one line commentary) based on the packages I could easily access through the seller's 2p2 profile via "find threads started by XXXXX". I can only pull up last 250 threads created by seller, is there a way to pull up more, say 500?

For what it's worth, if I had a hidden agenda and wanted to present negatively skewed results, I would have only tracked the seller's packages since he started in October where there is a clear and distinct change in the packages he is now offering the marketplace with the obvious removal of "high value games" and limited offering of only "tougher" games (which you appear to notice as well given your "PS: I do still think seller is now selling -EV games" comment).

Feel free to PM me how I can easily pull up this marketplace reg's threads from 1/1/2015 through 4/15/2015. Thanks!

Last edited by Aznpowr11; 01-17-2016 at 01:49 AM.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 03:54 AM
Quote:
Seller's Financial Investment - $299,542.63
Seller's Financial Share of Returns - $368,092.74
Seller's Net Profit - $68,550.11*Go seller!
Seller's ROI (based on his share of buyins/returns) -*22.88%
Markup Paid to Seller -*$34,155.38- dayum, he's gettin' rich!
So this means that this seller's total overall profit is actually around $102.7k, correct? (By adding together the 2 bold numbers)
That's obviously massive if so, and doesn't even include games that he has all of himself in (which are likely higher value ones according to OP).

Also I would have expected the average MU to be higher if it's one of the 2 people I'm thinking of.

Last edited by Hero Value; 01-17-2016 at 04:00 AM.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 04:51 AM
Forgive me if I'm wrong, just having trouble wrapping my head around how you're calculating the MU profits for him. It looks to me like you're calculating them for him twice, once to decrease the actual $ amt he is investing, and again to increase his profits. If you are already subtracting the MU he's taking in from the $ that he is putting up himself, you can't add them to his profit again after. He can't pocket it again once its already been put toward his % of the buy ins. If you want to get diff ROI's and profits pre and post MU you have to calculate his % of buy ins at face value.

Its late here, hope I'm seeing this right and also that I explained myself properly.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 06:00 AM
Nice lol. Should actually do this for every MP reg and sticky this.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 06:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Sasquatch
Forgive me if I'm wrong, just having trouble wrapping my head around how you're calculating the MU profits for him. It looks to me like you're calculating them for him twice, once to decrease the actual $ amt he is investing, and again to increase his profits. If you are already subtracting the MU he's taking in from the $ that he is putting up himself, you can't add them to his profit again after. He can't pocket it again once its already been put toward his % of the buy ins. If you want to get diff ROI's and profits pre and post MU you have to calculate his % of buy ins at face value.

Its late here, hope I'm seeing this right and also that I explained myself properly.
Great catch! I believe you are correct in that I made a rather egregious mistake in my final calculations by factoring markup into the seller's profits twice!

Given that this error slipped by myself and many others that read and/or posted in this thread, let's show an example to illustrate further.

Hypothetical Package #1

Total Buyins - $10,000
Markup - 20%
% Sold to Investors - 45%
Investors' Investment - $5,400
Seller's Investment - $4,600 [B](right here markup profit is already factored into the seller's buyin investment!)]/B]

Assumption #1 - total cashes/refunds - $10,000
Investors' Return - $4,500
Seller's Return - $5,500

Investors' Net Loss - $900
Seller's Net Profit - $900

For some monkey reason I was adding another $900 to Seller's Net Profit and arriving at $1,800 when this is not correct!

We can do a simple checks and balances by adding Investors' Net Profit/Loss and Seller's Net Profit/Loss and verifying that it equals Package cashes/refunds subtract Package Cost!

In this case -$900 + $900 = $0 = $10,000 - $10,000

Assumption #2 = total cashes/refunds - $8,000 (overall package loss of $2,000)
Investors' Return - $3,600
Seller's Return - $4,400

Investors' Net Loss - $1800
Seller's Net Loss - $200

Checks and balances using assumption #2
-$1800 + -$200 = $-2000 = $8,000 - $10,000
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 06:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aznpowr11
Some interesting statistics to learn from this report:

Sample Size of Packages Tracked - 125
Total Buyins - $544,898.40
Weighted Average Markup Charged to Marketplace - $13.92% - "not bad, seems reasonable!", says some of you investors!
Total Returns - $606,076.16 wowzers!
Net Profit at Table - $61,177.76 This seller is a winner at the tables!
Seller's Financial Investment - $299,542.63
Seller's Financial Share of Returns - $368,092.74
Seller's Net Profit - $68,550.11 Go seller!
Seller's ROI (based on his share of buyins/returns) - 22.88%
Investors' Financial Investment - $245,355.77 man... you marketplace regs are RICH!
Investors' Financial Share of Returns - $237.983.42 wait a second... we invested more than this... dafuq?
Investors' Net Loss - $7,372.35
Investors' ROI - negative 3.00%
Markup Paid to Seller - $34,155.38 - dayum, he's gettin' rich!
Seller's Markup Adjusted ROI - 34.29% - no wonder why he's selling packs in the marketplace!

Seller's TOTAL Profit - $102,705.49
Investors' TOTAL Loss - $7,372.35
Removing the error that The Sasquatch kindly pointed out to me, here are the correct statistics to learn from this report!

Some interesting statistics to learn from this report:

Sample Size of Packages Tracked - 125
Total Buyins - $544,898.40
Weighted Average Markup Charged to Marketplace - $13.92%
Total Returns - $606,076.16
Net Profit at Table - $61,177.76
Seller's Financial Investment - $299,542.63
Seller's Financial Share of Returns - $368,092.74
Seller's Net Profit (markup already factored in!) - $68,550.11
Seller's Markup Adjusted ROI - 22.88%
Investors' Financial Investment - $245,355.77
Investors' Financial Share of Returns - $237.983.42
Investors' Net Loss - $7,372.35
Investors' ROI - negative 3.00%
Markup Paid to Seller - $34,155.38

Seller's TOTAL Profit - $68,550.11
Investors' TOTAL Loss - $7,372.35

Using our checks and balances:

$68,550.11 + -$7,372.35 = $61,117.76 = $606,076.16 - $544,898.40

Last edited by Aznpowr11; 01-17-2016 at 06:24 AM.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 06:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hero Value
So this means that this seller's total overall profit is actually around $102.7k, correct? (By adding together the 2 bold numbers)
That's obviously massive if so, and doesn't even include games that he has all of himself in (which are likely higher value ones according to OP).

Also I would have expected the average MU to be higher if it's one of the 2 people I'm thinking of.
See The Sasquatch's post immediately below yours as he pointed out an egregious mistake that I had made in my initial calculations.

I believe the correct numbers are:
Seller's TOTAL Profit - $68,550.11
Seller's Markup Adjust ROI - 22.88%
Investors' TOTAL Loss - $7,372.35
Investors' Markup Adjusted ROI - negative 3.00%
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 06:30 AM
I forgot to mention that a kind 2p2er PMed me how to find this marketplace reg's packages dating back to 12/24/2014! I will run the tracking report for this larger sample size and report back numbers in the near future!

Last edited by Aznpowr11; 01-17-2016 at 06:39 AM.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 07:37 AM
Somebody might wanna sticky this in the online marketplace
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 09:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aznpowr11
I forgot to mention that a kind 2p2er PMed me how to find this marketplace reg's packages dating back to 12/24/2014! I will run the tracking report for this larger sample size and report back numbers in the near future!
I was able to track an additional 64 packages for this marketplace seller, for a total of 189 packages tracked.

Below are the screenshots of the raw data:










New statistics are as follows:

Sample Size of Packages Tracked - 189
Total Buyins - $797,686.35
Weighted Average Markup Charged to Marketplace - $14.00%
Total Returns - $929,989.16
Net Profit at Table - $132,302.81
Seller's Financial Investment - $440,285.55
Seller's Financial Share of Returns - $565,162.41
Seller's Net Profit - $124,876.86
Seller's Markup Adjusted ROI - 28.36%
Investors' Financial Investment - $357,440.80
Investors' Financial Share of Returns - $364,826.75
Investors' Net Profit - $7,425.95
Investors' ROI - 2.08%
Markup Paid to Seller - $50,035.40

Seller's Percentage of Buyins - 55.20%
Investors' Percentage of Buyins - 44.80%
Seller's Percentage of Total Profits - 94.39%
Investors' Percentage of Total Profits - 5.61%

Last edited by Aznpowr11; 01-17-2016 at 09:52 AM.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 09:39 AM
thanks for doing the additional packages, appreciate the effort very much. your point is driven home with lot of weight now.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 02:36 PM
Can also put some rough estimate in of the vpp/rakeback for the seller since thats a decent chunk of the profit in these tough hs mtts and investors get none of that.
A Fairly Comprehensive Tracking of 1 Marketplace Reg's Packages Quote
01-17-2016 , 06:02 PM
Just under 80k rake paid id guess. Assuming 30% rakeback $24k
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